Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:27:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x37d3…709a
sports · 78 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$160,339 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$29,536 · open −$133,847
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21,246
Realized−$29,536
Unrealized−$133,847
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses22 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$8,493
Open positions8
Markets (closed)70 / 78
History coverage48d
Avg bet$8,328
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 8 History 70 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11,438
7 days−$27,354
14 days−$152,143
30 days−$133,638
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Colorado Rockies 22¢ 34¢ $6,140 $9,728 +$3,588 (+58%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 27¢ 1¢ $112,177 $4,381 −$107,796 (-96%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 32¢ 20¢ $5,086 $3,120 −$1,966 (-39%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 21¢ 2¢ $25,164 $2,166 −$22,998 (-91%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 15¢ 10¢ $2,732 $1,765 −$967 (-35%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2,871 $42 −$2,829 (-99%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $654 $34 −$620 (-95%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 21¢ 1¢ $269 $9 −$260 (-96%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 4¢ 0¢ $604 $0 −$604 (-100%)
Paraguay to score first vs. United States? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles San Diego Padres 4¢ 0¢ $280 $0 −$280 (-100%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins St. Louis Cardinals 5¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 46¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 11¢ 0¢ $6,713 $0 −$6,713 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 6¢ 0¢ $794 $0 −$794 (-100%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 7¢ 0¢ $1,540 $0 −$1,540 (-100%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 1¢ 0¢ $1,276 $0 −$1,276 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $1,582 −$1,540 -97%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $817 −$794 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 13 $32 −$31 -97%
Paraguay to score first vs. United States? Jun 13 $103 −$100 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $620 −$604 -97%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $288 −$280 -97%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1,306 −$1,276 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $6,892 −$6,713 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $215 +$785 +365%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 10 $483 −$483 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $1,024 −$1,024 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 10 $430 −$430 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $5,923 −$5,923 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $1,217 −$1,217 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 10 $3,847 −$3,847 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $2,405 −$2,405 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $1,873 −$1,873 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $2,176 −$2,176 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $337 −$337 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $48,809 −$48,809 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $9,009 +$45,406 +504%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $1,194 −$1,194 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $33,145 −$33,145 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $8,770 −$8,700 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $16,166 +$29,847 +185%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $2,637 +$2,363 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $35,119 +$18,201 +52%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $1,255 +$44 +4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jun 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 03 $204 −$204 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets Jun 03 $21 −$21 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Jun 03 $43 −$43 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $165 −$165 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 03 $1,719 −$1,719 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 03 $3,274 −$3,274 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 03 $3,341 −$3,341 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 03 $6,590 −$6,590 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 03 $5,398 −$5,398 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $5,165 −$5,165 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons Jun 03 $5,115 −$5,115 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 03 $103 −$103 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 03 $20,522 −$20,522 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 03 $37,207 −$37,207 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics Jun 03 $35,912 −$35,912 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 30 $705 +$9,695 +1376%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $12,386 +$8,809 +71%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $16,106 +$9,313 +58%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres May 03 $2,691 +$4,261 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 71% −$31,710
politics 29% −$131,053
other 0% −$620
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 21¢ $860 1m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 8¢ $84 23m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $510 26m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 9¢ $462 29m
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 13¢ $800 36m
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 19¢ $3,892 55m
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 5¢ $103 58m
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 4¢ $0 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 4¢ $163 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 4¢ $1 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 4¢ $41 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 5¢ $103 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 22¢ $1,351 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $1,019 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 18¢ $102 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 18¢ $10 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 13¢ $400 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 13¢ $103 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 7¢ $874 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 7¢ $144 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 5¢ $560 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $119 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $16 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $65 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $82 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -40.0% -45.7% 20% 17% -22.7%
≤30d 48 -28.2% -35.0% 17% 15% -46.6%
≤90d 70 +18.9% +7.5% 31% 30% -15.6%
all 70 +18.9% +7.5% 31% 30% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +7.5% 30% -15.6%
10% -2.7% 30% -23.7%
15% ← realistic here -12.1% 30% -31.0%
20% -20.8% 30% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21,245.69 · official $21,248.51 (match) · 1539 history records