Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:56:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
37 0x37d5…728f other 132 markets active 3h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$920 (+6%) realized +$964 · open −$44
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%46W / 51L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$112est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$1,207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$257
7 days−$85
14 days+$285
30 days+$291
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$428
sports 37% +$288
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +21.7% +10.1% 48% 43% -11.6%
≤30d 57 +17.3% +6.1% 49% 44% -5.8%
≤90d 97 +14.4% +3.5% 47% 44% -4.3%
all 97 +14.4% +3.5% 47% 44% -4.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.5% 44% -4.3%
10% -6.4% 42% -13.5%
15% -15.5% 39% -21.8%
20% -23.8% 34% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$107 vs −$81 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$1,207
Realized+$964
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses46 / 51
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions35
Markets (closed)97 / 132
History coverage268d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $125 $127 +$2 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $81 $109 +$28 (+34%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 77¢ 88¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+15%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-22%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 56¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+18%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 54¢ 64¢ $29 $35 +$6 (+20%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+10%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $44 $33 −$11 (-25%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 46¢ 42¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $27 $25 −$2 (-6%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Yes 39¢ 40¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$22 +73%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $55 +$68 +123%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $117 −$116 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $85 −$84 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $19 +$56 +286%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 +$119 +774%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $250 +$97 +39%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $156 −$4 -2%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 +$21 +109%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $31 +$84 +274%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $38 +$21 +55%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$47 +93%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $284 +$38 +14%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$76 +149%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $38 +$68 +181%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $153 −$62 -41%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $137 +$59 +43%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 +$2 +4%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $109 +$48 +44%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$113 +276%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $55 −$54 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $147 −$144 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $328 −$324 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $217 −$213 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $283 +$110 +39%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$55 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $27 +$73 +276%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $390 +$57 +14%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $126 −$11 -8%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $40 −$28 -71%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 11 $39 +$1 +1%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $153 +$81 +53%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $152 +$103 +67%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $162 −$9 -6%
Argentina vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $191 +$123 +64%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $129 +$37 +29%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $51 +$34 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $76 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 0¢ $0 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $123 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $49 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 5h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $49 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 10h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 13h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 13h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $20 13h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 26¢ $9 19h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 21h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 21h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 21h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $34 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 90¢ $135 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $297 22h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 68¢ $152 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $100 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $17 24h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,206.99 · official $1,207.01 (match) · 323 history records