Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:46:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x37d7…08ce
world · 35 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$3 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$28 · open +$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$103
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses20 / 10
Open positions5
Markets (closed)30 / 35
History coverage28d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 5 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days−$43
14 days−$38
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 87¢ 97¢ $33 $37 +$4 (+11%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $34 $37 +$3 (+8%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? No 83¢ 100¢ $12 $15 +$2 (+20%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 87¢ 96¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $35 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $32 +$8 +25%
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $110 −$1 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$2 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $45 −$44 -97%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $28 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $29 −$1 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 08 $26 +$3 +12%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $54 −$1 -2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $35 +$3 +8%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 02 $9 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $10 +$1 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $67 +$1 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $40 +$1 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $10 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? May 30 $9 +$1 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $8 $0 +6%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? May 25 $42 −$1 -3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $6 +$2 +25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $5 $0 +7%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $35 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $35 +$4 +12%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? May 21 $35 −$1 -3%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $69 +$5 +7%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 18 $34 −$4 -10%
Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by May 31? May 17 $35 +$1 +3%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 17 $104 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 52% −$32
other 25% +$7
politics 13% +$1
tech 3% +$1
crypto 3% +$3
finance 3% −$1
culture 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 18¢ $30 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $32 4h
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $57 5h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY No 83¢ $13 30h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 13, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 30h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 18¢ $31 2d
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $17 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $24 2d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? BUY No 98¢ $28 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $28 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $29 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 49¢ $29 6d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $26 7d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $26 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $25 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $26 9d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $23 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $34 10d
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 77¢ $11 11d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $23 12d
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $35 12d
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $14 12d
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $11 13d
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $11 13d
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $34 13d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $10 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $10 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -17.3% -25.1% 56% 22% -20.9%
≤30d 30 -2.7% -12.0% 67% 13% -11.9%
≤90d 30 -2.7% -12.0% 67% 13% -11.9%
all 30 -2.7% -12.0% 67% 13% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 13% -11.9%
10% -20.4% 7% -20.4%
15% -28.1% 0% -28.1%
20% -35.1% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.96 · official $102.96 (match) · 90 history records