Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:46:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37d7…a271 sports 97 markets active 13h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$51 (-10%) realized −$52 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%45W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$12
other 29% −$50
crypto 7% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -13.5% -21.7% 47% 47% -20.5%
≤30d 96 -13.5% -21.7% 47% 47% -20.5%
≤90d 96 -13.5% -21.7% 47% 47% -20.5%
all 96 -13.5% -21.7% 47% 47% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 47% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 43% -28.1%
15% -36.0% 36% -35.1%
20% -42.3% 31% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses45 / 51
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)96 / 97
History coverage6d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 72¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 +$12 +76%
Ghana to win the second half? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 18 $5 −$3 -54%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $5 −$4 -85%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$2 -48%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$4 -87%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $5 +$3 +60%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$11 +206%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +36%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $6 +$2 +27%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 +$4 +60%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$12 +119%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +67%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$14 +134%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $6 +$1 +16%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $6 +$2 +32%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $6 +$6 +105%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $6 +$4 +65%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $6 −$6 -99%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$3 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $6 +$2 +31%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $6 +$6 +97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $6 +$3 +55%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $6 +$10 +158%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 100¢ $27 12h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 56¢ $15 13h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 16h
Ghana to win the second half? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 16h
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 16h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) SELL Ghana 3¢ $1 16h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 16h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 SELL Over 5¢ $1 16h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 21h
England to score first vs. Croatia? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 21h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $5 21h
Ghana to win the second half? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 21h
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 21h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 19¢ $5 21h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $5 21h
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 21h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 21h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $0 21h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $0 21h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 5¢ $1 21h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $5 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $6 22h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 22h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 32¢ $6 22h
Austria to score first vs. Jordan? BUY Yes 73¢ $6 37h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $6 37h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $10 37h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $6 37h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $6 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.01 · official $21.01 (match) · 193 history records