Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:27:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37df…f8b9 weather 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$194 (+4%) realized +$194 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate9%12W / 120L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day37.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$266
7 days−$146
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 49% −$98
sports 18% +$337
world 11% −$6
other 9% −$232
politics 6% −$24
finance 4% +$4
culture 2% −$2
crypto 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -8.6% -17.3% 6% 3% -12.9%
≤30d 132 -2.7% -12.0% 9% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 132 -2.7% -12.0% 9% 6% -9.7%
all 132 -2.7% -12.0% 9% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 6% -9.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 6% -18.4%
15% -28.1% 6% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$4 · ×9.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$194
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses12 / 120
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)132 / 132
History coverage8d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day37.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 132 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 23? Jun 22 $100 −$9 -9%
— Jun 22 $72 −$58 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 23? Jun 22 $43 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 23? Jun 22 $5 $0 -3%
— Jun 22 $3 $0 -2%
— Jun 22 $90 −$84 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 23? Jun 22 $97 −$1 -1%
— Jun 22 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 23? Jun 22 $36 −$1 -2%
— Jun 22 $6 $0 -0%
— Jun 22 $35 −$1 -2%
— Jun 22 $7 $0 -1%
— Jun 22 $1 $0 -2%
— Jun 22 $3 $0 -1%
— Jun 22 $26 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 23? Jun 22 $9 $0 -1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 23? Jun 22 $31 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 23? Jun 22 $100 −$9 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 23? Jun 21 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 23? Jun 21 $3 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on June 23? Jun 21 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 23? Jun 21 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 23? Jun 21 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 22? Jun 21 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? Jun 21 $28 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? Jun 21 $24 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 23? Jun 21 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 23? Jun 21 $17 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 23? Jun 21 $26 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? Jun 21 $52 −$1 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 23? Jun 21 $27 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 21 $100 −$5 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? Jun 21 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 23? Jun 21 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 23? Jun 21 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 23? Jun 21 $18 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 23? Jun 21 $21 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 23? Jun 21 $100 −$12 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 23? Jun 21 $8 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 23? Jun 21 $29 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 22? Jun 21 $4 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 23? Jun 21 $9 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 23? Jun 21 $16 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on June 23? Jun 21 $9 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 23? Jun 21 $100 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 23? Jun 21 $52 −$4 -7%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 23? Jun 21 $28 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 23? Jun 21 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 23? Jun 21 $100 −$3 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 23? SELL No 47¢ $91 1h
BUY 72¢ $11 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 23? BUY No 50¢ $100 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 23? SELL No 76¢ $24 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 23? SELL No 78¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 78¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 23? SELL No 75¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 23? BUY No 76¢ $5 2h
BUY 72¢ $6 2h
SELL 56¢ $2 2h
BUY 56¢ $3 2h
BUY 66¢ $39 2h
BUY 72¢ $41 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 23? SELL No 66¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 23? BUY No 66¢ $31 2h
SELL 73¢ $2 3h
BUY 74¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 23? SELL No 61¢ $35 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 23? BUY No 61¢ $36 3h
SELL 67¢ $6 3h
BUY 66¢ $6 3h
BUY 66¢ $3 3h
SELL 69¢ $34 3h
BUY 70¢ $35 3h
SELL 71¢ $7 3h
BUY 71¢ $7 3h
SELL 69¢ $1 3h
BUY 69¢ $1 3h
BUY 66¢ $42 3h
SELL 66¢ $6 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 327 history records