Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:46:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37df…288e crypto 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate44%37W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$30
14 days−$102
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$120
other 10% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +4.6% -5.4% 43% 38% -12.6%
≤30d 85 -1.7% -11.1% 44% 36% -13.4%
≤90d 85 -1.7% -11.1% 44% 36% -13.4%
all 85 -1.7% -11.1% 44% 36% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 36% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 33% -21.7%
15% -27.3% 22% -29.3%
20% -34.5% 14% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$14 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses37 / 48
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage14d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $25 +$3 +13%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$5 -45%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$6 +40%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $13 +$8 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $15 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $42 +$20 +49%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $8 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$5 -25%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 18 $12 $0 -4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -14%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$5 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -15%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$23 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$22 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $41 $0 -1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $32 +$18 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $69 −$26 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 13 $168 −$30 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $93 +$133 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$10 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $72 −$10 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$6 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $14 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $21 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $0 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 395 history records