Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:52:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37e2…4b92 sports 212 markets active 0h ago coverage 238d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,666 (-3%) realized −$1,662 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%89W / 120L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 238d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$3,927
other 5% −$934
crypto 1% +$2
culture 0% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +173.5% +147.4% 43% 43% -5.9%
≤30d 7 +173.5% +147.4% 43% 43% -5.9%
≤90d 35 +37.9% +24.8% 51% 51% -13.9%
all 209 +7.4% -2.8% 43% 42% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 42% -18.2%
10% -12.1% 42% -26.1%
15% -20.6% 40% -33.2%
20% -28.4% 38% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +21% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$265 vs −$237 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$352
Realized−$1,662
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses89 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions3
Markets (closed)209 / 212
History coverage238d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 209 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $311 $307 −$4 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Chicago White Sox 48¢ 48¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $48 −$47 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $46 +$68 +148%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $132 −$25 -19%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $260 +$149 +57%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $287 −$282 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $238 +$213 +90%
ITF Haskovo: Iva Ivanova vs Martha Matoula Jun 18 $49 −$48 -98%
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies May 07 $172 +$116 +67%
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 06 $395 −$388 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros May 06 $136 +$259 +190%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 05 $70 −$68 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners May 05 $276 −$272 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins May 03 $45 −$44 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 03 $104 −$103 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 02 $172 −$170 -99%
Madrid Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Diana Shnaider Apr 24 $33 +$15 +46%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 23 $634 −$625 -99%
Barcelona Open: Corentin Moutet vs Lorenzo Musetti Apr 16 $200 +$56 +28%
BMW Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Fabian Marozsan Apr 16 $125 +$182 +146%
BMW Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Alex Molcan Apr 16 $295 −$291 -99%
Magic vs. 76ers Apr 16 $550 +$473 +86%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $530 −$523 -99%
BMW Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Apr 15 $521 +$617 +118%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 15 $905 −$769 -85%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $225 +$179 +79%
Ducks vs. Wild Apr 15 $505 +$620 +123%
Sharks vs. Predators Apr 14 $635 +$833 +131%
Rangers vs. Panthers Apr 14 $28 +$33 +117%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Joao Fonseca vs Alexander Zverev Apr 10 $26 +$7 +26%
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres Apr 10 $335 −$329 -98%
Pacers vs. Nets Apr 09 $345 −$339 -98%
Athletics vs. New York Yankees Apr 09 $29 +$20 +70%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Quentin Halys Apr 04 $125 −$123 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Apr 04 $99 +$93 +93%
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres Apr 01 $146 +$111 +76%
Murcia: Jesper de Jong vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Mar 20 $221 −$221 -100%
Islanders vs. Senators Mar 20 $219 −$94 -43%
Canadiens vs. Red Wings Mar 20 $149 +$154 +104%
Flyers vs. Ducks Mar 19 $84 +$114 +136%
Stars vs. Avalanche Mar 19 $124 +$158 +127%
Penguins vs. Hurricanes Mar 18 $326 −$326 -100%
Blues vs. Flames Mar 18 $80 −$80 -100%
Zadar: Lukas Neumayer vs Sumit Nagal Mar 18 $339 −$284 -84%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Mar 11 $151 −$151 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Mar 04 $139 +$93 +67%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Mar 03 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolves Feb 12 $291 −$291 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Feb 12 $275 +$202 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 57¢ $57 29m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 57¢ $53 50m
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Chicago White Sox 47¢ $42 55m
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 56¢ $48 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers SELL Chicago White Sox 47¢ $48 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $102 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $82 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $29 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $28 7h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $29 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $127 8h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 9h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $129 10h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins $17 12h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 26¢ $17 12h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $28 12h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 23¢ $8 12h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 89¢ $273 12h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Los Angeles Angels 98¢ $261 12h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 34¢ $7 13h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 35¢ $82 13h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 29¢ $17 13h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Los Angeles Angels 71¢ $18 13h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 41¢ $26 21h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 41¢ $107 21h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Los Angeles Angels 40¢ $14 22h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 16¢ $17 22h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 16¢ $54 22h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Los Angeles Angels 40¢ $109 22h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 39¢ $15 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $352.38 · official $352.38 (match) · 1024 history records