Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:40:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
37 0x37e3…76ec crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 345d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$814 (+9%) realized +$579 · open +$235
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,318now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,366
7 days+$2,366
14 days+$2,366
30 days+$2,366
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$1,005
sports 22% +$1,523
weather 18% −$1,363
crypto 12% −$189
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +96.9% +78.2% 75% 75% +39.6%
≤30d 8 +96.9% +78.2% 75% 75% +39.6%
≤90d 26 +13.0% +2.3% 50% 42% +0.9%
all 28 +10.4% -0.1% 50% 39% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 39% -0.9%
10% -9.6% 39% -10.4%
15% -18.4% 29% -19.0%
20% -26.4% 29% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -18% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$188 vs −$136 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

345d coverage
Net worth$1,318
Realized+$579
Unrealized+$235
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage345d
Avg bet$305
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 54¢ 66¢ $1,083 $1,318 +$235 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,007 −$28 -3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,931 +$675 +35%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $103 +$313 +303%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $30 +$36 +119%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $411 +$265 +64%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $73 −$43 -58%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $306 +$674 +220%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $499 +$474 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 13 $156 −$149 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 13 $180 −$31 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 13 $171 +$56 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 13 $125 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 13? Apr 13 $100 −$81 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 13? Apr 13 $582 −$468 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 13? Apr 13 $871 −$814 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 13 $23 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 13 $35 −$17 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 13 $16 +$16 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Apr 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 13 $81 −$64 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Apr 13 $56 −$28 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Apr 13 $94 −$87 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 13 $42 +$66 +158%
Will Pump.fun reach $0.007 before August? Apr 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 13 $50 +$32 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 13 $52 +$17 +32%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by August 31? Aug 01 $161 −$78 -48%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 08 $568 +$10 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $100 58m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $3 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $995 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $979 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1,007 11h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Argentina 87¢ $416 14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $696 16h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 85¢ $66 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 67¢ $530 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $571 18h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 21¢ $103 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $676 18h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $30 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $9 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $9 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 19h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $411 20h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $72 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $664 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $980 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 22¢ $102 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $204 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $974 20h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,318.07 · official $1,318.07 (match) · 227 history records