Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T18:30:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

37
0x37e6…f35c
world · 240 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$403 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$438 · open +$30
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$768
Realized−$438
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses93 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions15
Markets (closed)225 / 240
History coverage60d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day56.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 15 History 225 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$395
7 days−$320
14 days−$610
30 days+$206
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18? Yes 53¢ 70¢ $131 $173 +$42 (+32%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Yes 58¢ 74¢ $131 $168 +$37 (+28%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Yes 72¢ 67¢ $93 $86 −$7 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 57¢ 42¢ $113 $84 −$28 (-25%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? No 41¢ 63¢ $53 $81 +$28 (+52%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 40¢ 56¢ $30 $42 +$12 (+41%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $32 $33 +$1 (+4%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Yes 38¢ 37¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $27 $21 −$6 (-23%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $11 $14 +$3 (+26%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 25¢ 8¢ $39 $13 −$25 (-66%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Massimiliano Allegri be the next manager of SSC Napoli? No 14¢ 4¢ $21 $6 −$15 (-72%)
Will Xavi Hernandez be the next manager of SSC Napoli? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $16 −$2 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $892 −$228 -26%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $27 +$6 +22%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $602 −$91 -15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $624 −$55 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $137 −$13 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $545 −$97 -18%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $46 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $323 +$11 +3%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 13 $19 −$16 -80%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $0 $0 -35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $257 −$89 -34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $1,109 +$132 +12%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J Jun 12 $30 −$13 -44%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $63 −$4 -6%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 12 $23 −$7 -28%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 12 $118 +$14 +12%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 12 $14 +$3 +24%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $65 +$5 +8%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $28 +$5 +16%
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 12 $106 −$9 -8%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $18 +$3 +15%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $214 +$70 +32%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $195 +$10 +5%
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -12%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 11 $29 −$11 -37%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -79%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +24%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $28 +$8 +30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $64 −$2 -3%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $171 −$16 -9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $28 +$7 +26%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $34 −$16 -48%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 10 $14 −$6 -42%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $218 +$78 +36%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $7 −$4 -58%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -73%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $41 −$13 -32%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $320 +$79 +25%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $9 +$9 +92%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $16 −$6 -39%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $69 −$28 -41%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $4 −$2 -55%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 05 $42 −$23 -56%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 04 $303 +$23 +7%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $50 +$14 +28%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $9 −$4 -47%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 03 $84 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 78% −$71
politics 9% −$429
other 6% +$44
sports 5% +$100
tech 1% +$24
economics 0% −$79
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 38¢ $23 1m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 63¢ $31 2m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 63¢ $0 4m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 63¢ $1 5m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL No 5¢ $1 22m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL No 4¢ $6 22m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL No 4¢ $6 23m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June SELL No 3¢ $0 24m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 47¢ $18 29m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL No 61¢ $18 30m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $18 30m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 5¢ $6 34m
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June BUY No 5¢ $10 34m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 46m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 48m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $22 53m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $10 56m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 38¢ $15 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 47¢ $23 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 47¢ $5 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $23 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 76¢ $75 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 45¢ $18 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $4 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $11 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 1h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 53¢ $9 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 56¢ $23 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL No 39¢ $56 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY No 52¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -13.4% -21.7% 38% 29% -13.9%
≤30d 101 -0.8% -10.2% 39% 28% -8.5%
≤90d 225 +12.2% +1.5% 41% 32% -10.7%
all 225 +12.2% +1.5% 41% 32% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover56.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.5% 32% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -8.2% 22% -19.3%
15% -17.0% 13% -27.1%
20% -25.2% 10% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $767.96 · official $767.96 (match) · 3500 history records