Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:36:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
37 0x37e7…c2d1 weather 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$734 (+5%) realized +$575 · open +$159
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate74%80W / 28L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$13
14 days+$80
30 days+$246
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$856
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.2% -7.5% 100% 0% -7.6%
≤30d 38 +6.5% -3.6% 95% 24% -6.5%
≤90d 108 +7.2% -3.0% 74% 31% -5.2%
all 108 +7.2% -3.0% 74% 31% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 31% -5.2%
10% -12.3% 17% -14.3%
15% -20.7% 10% -22.6%
20% -28.5% 7% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×2.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.15 per $1 lost it wins $8.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$1,134
Realized+$575
Unrealized+$159
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses80 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)108 / 110
History coverage68d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? Yes 69¢ 95¢ $500 $684 +$184 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? No 99¢ 94¢ $475 $451 −$24 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $239 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $345 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $75 +$34 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $331 +$14 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $56 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $224 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $39 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $151 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $248 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $352 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5? Jun 05 $620 +$35 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5? Jun 05 $90 −$31 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 5? Jun 05 $221 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $122 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $195 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $20 +$4 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 3? Jun 03 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $496 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $323 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $344 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 31? Jun 01 $23 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31? May 31 $600 +$28 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on May 30? May 31 $17 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 30? May 31 $33 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 30? May 30 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 30? May 30 $47 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 29? May 29 $120 +$30 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 30? May 29 $13 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 29? May 29 $500 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 28? May 28 $43 +$6 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $114 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 28? May 28 $44 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 27? May 27 $21 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on May 25? May 25 $119 +$19 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 24? May 24 $754 +$21 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 22? May 22 $5 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 18? May 20 $14 +$3 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 16? May 16 $369 +$11 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on May 13? May 13 $201 +$28 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 12? May 12 $153 +$49 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 11? May 11 $54 +$10 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 11? May 11 $207 +$16 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 12? May 10 $8 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 10? May 10 $185 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 10? May 10 $228 +$32 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 9? May 09 $233 +$5 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on May 9? May 09 $368 +$9 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 68¢ $406 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $76 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $25 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $286 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $88 24h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $15 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $19 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $23 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $16 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $56 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $21 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $65 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $55 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $20 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $62 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $87 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $31 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $80 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 97¢ $25 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? BUY No 30¢ $3 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? BUY No 35¢ $1 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? BUY No 35¢ $2 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? BUY No 47¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? BUY No 46¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? BUY No 65¢ $6 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? BUY No 72¢ $7 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? BUY No 65¢ $7 9d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? SELL No 77¢ $12 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,134.34 · official $1,133.15 (match) · 463 history records