Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37e9…eede sports 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (111 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,296 (+9%) realized −$413 · open +$1,709
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$580per market
Trades / day111.4pace
Fees−$228est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$4,248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$2,258
other 8% −$691
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (111 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -16.1% -24.1% 41% 36% -10.6%
≤30d 22 -16.1% -24.1% 41% 36% -10.6%
≤90d 22 -16.1% -24.1% 41% 36% -10.6%
all 22 -16.1% -24.1% 41% 36% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover111.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.1% 36% -10.6%
10% -31.3% 36% -19.2%
15% ← realistic here -38.0% 36% -27.0%
20% -44.1% 36% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$728) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -40% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$671 vs −$475 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$4,248
Realized−$413
Unrealized+$1,709
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$228
Open positions4
Markets (closed)22 / 26
History coverage1d
Avg bet$580
Trades / day111.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 46¢ 100¢ $1,628 $3,550 +$1,922 (+118%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 81¢ $118 $204 +$86 (+73%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 18¢ $388 $178 −$211 (-54%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? No 55¢ 42¢ $220 $166 −$54 (-25%)
Türkiye leading at halftime? No 66¢ 100¢ $98 $150 +$52 (+53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Paraguay leading at halftime? Jun 20 $56 −$1 -1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $7 +$8 +117%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $19 +$20 +104%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $106 +$94 +89%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $167 +$7 +4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $2,400 −$2,400 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $1,337 +$1,508 +113%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $418 +$249 +60%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $350 −$350 -100%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $545 −$545 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $341 −$341 -100%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $340 −$338 -99%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $1,984 +$1,980 +100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $728 +$965 +133%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $937 +$1,208 +129%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $1,036 −$474 -46%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $213 −$213 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $202 −$200 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $952 −$952 -100%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 18 $345 −$345 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 55¢ $21 15m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 55¢ $5 15m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 55¢ $49 15m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 55¢ $9 15m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 55¢ $18 15m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 55¢ $9 16m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 55¢ $110 16m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $59 21m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $78 23m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $20 23m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 24m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $60 26m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $69 26m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $118 31m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $376 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $106 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $27 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $7 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $2 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $1 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $26 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $11 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $429 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $112 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 44¢ $4 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $9 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $495 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 39¢ $17 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,247.57 · official $4,303.09 · 151 history records