Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T02:42:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37e9…9f6f other 114 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-1%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate27%31W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days+$11
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$10
tech 19% −$4
crypto 16% −$31
economics 10% −$1
politics 9% $0
world 9% −$1
sports 6% +$12
finance 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -11.7% -20.1% 62% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 29 +6.8% -3.4% 38% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 90 -4.8% -13.8% 27% 2% -10.3%
all 113 -2.4% -11.7% 27% 5% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 5% -10.6%
10% -20.1% 4% -19.2%
15% -27.8% 4% -27.0%
20% -34.9% 4% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses31 / 82
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)113 / 114
History coverage151d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 29 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Dearica Hamby have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 Jun 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats Jun 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 25 $18 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 25 $20 +$1 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 22 $30 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 19 $7 $0 +4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 18 $17 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Jun 17 $7 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $30 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -97%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 17 $60 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 17 $34 $0 -1%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -98%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$8 +344%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $104 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 11 $27 −$1 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? Jun 01 $27 $0 -1%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? Jun 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 760-779 tweets in May 2026? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI? May 28 $10 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 28 $10 $0 +1%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 60 and 70 million views on week May 25 $10 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? May 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets in May 2026? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 22 $14 $0 -0%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be less than 300k? May 22 $9 $0 -0%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? May 22 $30 +$1 +2%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 20 $11 $0 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $15 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 20 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 19 $9 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $10 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $19 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 19 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $20 1h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 2d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $20 2d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 2d
Will Dearica Hamby have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 SELL No 100¢ $18 2d
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats SELL No 96¢ $20 2d
Will Dearica Hamby have the highest rebounds per game in the WNBA 2026 BUY No 99¢ $18 3d
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY No 96¢ $20 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $18 3d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $21 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $18 6d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 96¢ $20 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 99¢ $30 6d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 98¢ $30 10d
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? BUY No 96¢ $7 10d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 10d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $17 10d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $17 11d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 11d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 11d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? SELL No 100¢ $7 11d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 100¢ $30 11d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY No 100¢ $7 12d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $30 12d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 12d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $20 12d
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $20 12d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $20 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.92 · official $32.92 (match) · 308 history records