Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:50:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

37 0x37e9…08d3 sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$899 (+18%) realized +$1,011 · open −$112

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip

Net edge+13%after slip

Net WR58%break-even

Win rate58%7W / 5L

Drawdown69%max

Avg bet$301per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Fees−$22est.

Kalshi-fit65%portable

Net worth$2,574now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$468

7 days+$877

14 days+$877

30 days+$877

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +58%

net ROI/market (all)+13.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+74.8%	+58.2%	100%	100%	+58.7%
≤30d	4	+74.8%	+58.2%	100%	100%	+58.7%
≤90d	11	+11.4%	+0.8%	55%	55%	+23.1%
all	12	+25.3%	+13.4%	58%	58%	+28.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+13.4%	58%	+28.5%
10%	+2.5%	58%	+16.2%
15%	-7.4%	58%	+5.0%
20%	-16.4%	50%	-5.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 24% · top 2 43% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +25% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -1% → late +52% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$245 vs −$140 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage

Net worth$2,574

Realized+$1,011

Unrealized−$112

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses7 / 5

Est. fees paid−$22

Open positions5

Markets (closed)12 / 17

History coverage92d

Avg bet$301

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown69%

Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	Yes	69¢	62¢	$1,419	$1,285	−$134 (-9%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Argentina	37¢	38¢	$370	$375	+$5 (+1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Belgium	44¢	46¢	$352	$364	+$12 (+3%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	69¢	68¢	$345	$342	−$2 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	Uruguay	40¢	42¢	$200	$208	+$8 (+4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$318	+$182	+57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$333	+$167	+50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$206	+$120	+58%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 16	$305	+$409	+134%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterda	Mar 27	$299	+$336	+112%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd	Mar 27	$262	−$262	-100%
Exact Score: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund 1 - 1 Hamburger SV?	Mar 23	$150	−$150	-100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs	Mar 23	$143	−$143	-100%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-21?	Mar 23	$126	−$126	-100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs	Mar 23	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-22?	Mar 23	$151	+$323	+214%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Gro	Mar 22	$100	+$179	+179%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)	BUY Uruguay	40¢	$204	1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	BUY Belgium	44¢	$358	1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$348	1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	37¢	$377	14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	93¢	$326	23h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	63¢	$318	30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$333	30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	58¢	$206	30h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	69¢	$830	3d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	69¢	$11	3d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	69¢	$18	3d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	69¢	$16	4d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	69¢	$70	4d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	69¢	$414	4d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	69¢	$4	4d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	69¢	$4	4d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	69¢	$0	4d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	69¢	$0	4d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	69¢	$11	4d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	69¢	$1	4d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	70¢	$23	4d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	BUY Yes	70¢	$16	4d
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	42¢	$305	5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterda	BUY PARIVISION	47¢	$299	86d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd	BUY TheMongolz	17¢	$56	86d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd	BUY TheMongolz	17¢	$3	86d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd	BUY TheMongolz	17¢	$42	86d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs TheMongolz (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd	BUY TheMongolz	51¢	$160	86d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-22?	SELL Yes	70¢	$154	90d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-22?	BUY Yes	28¢	$151	91d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,574.01 · official $2,574.01 (match) · 47 history records