Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:33:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
37 0x37ec…2032 sports 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$27 (+2%) realized +$17 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%24W / 29L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$53
other 5% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +2.8% -7.0% 45% 42% -2.3%
≤30d 53 +2.8% -7.0% 45% 42% -2.3%
≤90d 53 +2.8% -7.0% 45% 42% -2.3%
all 53 +2.8% -7.0% 45% 42% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 42% -2.3%
10% -15.9% 40% -11.7%
15% -24.0% 40% -20.2%
20% -31.4% 40% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$17 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses24 / 29
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)53 / 59
History coverage6d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 32¢ 42¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $20 +$20 +101%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 −$19 -94%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$18 -86%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$19 +93%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 +$20 +97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$25 +123%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $40 −$39 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) AND Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$22 +109%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$3 -12%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 +$20 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $21 −$18 -85%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$6 -30%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$4 +17%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$28 +140%
Spread: France (-2.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $20 +$57 +281%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 +$1 +4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $35 +$43 +123%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $14 +$20 +139%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$17 +86%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 +$2 +8%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $20 −$5 -22%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 −$16 -80%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 +$54 +262%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $16 +$8 +53%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $39 +$38 +96%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $19 +$21 +112%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $36 +$45 +125%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $41 −$13 -31%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$17 -83%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $39 +$43 +109%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $15 −$14 -92%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $33 +$37 +109%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $15 +$18 +119%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12 +$14 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$9 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $41 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $31 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 30¢ $29 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 31¢ $31 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 3¢ $1 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $20 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $20 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $20 11h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 32¢ $20 13h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY 50¢ $26 27h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $20 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $45 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 2¢ $1 27h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $40 28h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $20 29h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $14 29h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $6 29h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY 41¢ $20 29h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 39¢ $18 40h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $20 41h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY 24¢ $20 42h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY 23¢ $20 42h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) AND Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY 40¢ $20 42h
Spread: Austria (-3.5) AND Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY 47¢ $20 42h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $40 43h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 6¢ $3 43h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 35¢ $14 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.36 · official $41.31 (match) · 103 history records