Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:52:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37ed…dd18 crypto 704 markets active 6d ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (167 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$31 (-2%) realized −$31 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%356W / 348L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day166.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (167 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 306 -4.4% -13.5% 51% 51% -12.8%
≤30d 704 -5.7% -14.7% 51% 50% -12.7%
≤90d 704 -5.7% -14.7% 51% 50% -12.7%
all 704 -5.7% -14.7% 51% 50% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover166.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.7% 50% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 50% -21.1%
15% -30.3% 50% -28.7%
20% -37.1% 49% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses356 / 348
Open positions0
Markets (closed)704 / 704
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day166.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 704 Trades
no open positions (343 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.89 · official $13.89 (match) · 1067 history records