Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:07:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
37 0x37f4…49af sports 92 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,134 (+1%) realized +$6,683 · open −$5,549
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%36W / 43L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,352per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$879est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$9,105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,397
7 days+$3,469
14 days+$8,327
30 days+$13,672
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$8,992
other 33% −$5,801
crypto 10% −$728
politics 6% −$1,763
world 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +8.0% -2.3% 52% 48% -1.1%
≤30d 53 +34.3% +21.5% 51% 49% +7.0%
≤90d 79 +15.1% +4.1% 46% 44% -4.4%
all 79 +15.1% +4.1% 46% 44% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.1% 44% -4.4%
10% ← realistic here -5.9% 43% -13.5%
15% -15.0% 43% -21.9%
20% -23.3% 38% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$2,054) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
10.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,511 vs −$1,120 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$9,105
Realized+$6,683
Unrealized−$5,549
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses36 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$879
Open positions13
Markets (closed)79 / 92
History coverage62d
Avg bet$1,352
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $2,074 $1,952 −$121 (-6%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 19¢ $820 $1,895 +$1,075 (+131%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1,444 $1,402 −$41 (-3%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners Over 48¢ 48¢ $1,183 $1,196 +$12 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1,067 $1,055 −$11 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $611 $639 +$28 (+5%)
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Over 22¢ 22¢ $490 $501 +$11 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 24¢ 5¢ $1,195 $237 −$957 (-80%)
President Trump to Attend World Cup Final? No 16¢ 12¢ $120 $91 −$29 (-24%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Yes 26¢ 1¢ $1,325 $65 −$1,260 (-95%)
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $2,194 $31 −$2,163 (-99%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $1,282 $22 −$1,259 (-98%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $850 $17 −$832 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $1,198 +$2,258 +188%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2,189 +$1,144 +52%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $575 −$561 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $3,357 −$3,315 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $960 −$960 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 25 $860 +$1,140 +133%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 25 $3,478 +$2,559 +74%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $1,112 +$556 +50%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $430 −$423 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $533 −$533 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1,620 −$1,620 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,054 +$1,277 +62%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $1,408 +$803 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,024 +$2,981 +291%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $699 +$924 +132%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $2,192 +$5 +0%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 23 $2,056 −$2,056 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $927 −$911 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,222 +$1,000 +82%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $374 −$367 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $2,753 +$1,836 +67%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 21 $4,100 −$132 -3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,144 −$2,135 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $860 −$844 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,437 −$1,422 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $147 +$86 +59%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $2,494 +$1,394 +56%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,537 −$1,511 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $194 −$192 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,348 +$996 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $838 +$1,384 +165%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $508 +$603 +119%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $3,887 +$1,668 +43%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $854 −$211 -25%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,022 −$2,022 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1,371 +$851 +62%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $4,356 +$4,074 +94%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,900 −$2,900 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 13 $11 −$11 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $387 +$613 +158%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $389 +$1,611 +414%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,598 −$1,580 -99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $820 −$820 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $308 −$300 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $215 −$210 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 08 $1,470 −$1,470 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $400 +$4,600 +1150%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 04 $950 +$4,049 +426%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $2,280 +$1,720 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $18 7m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $18 12m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $55 19m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $18 20m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $37 33m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $2 36m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $120 36m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $92 45m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $18 49m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $18 52m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $9 53m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $502 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $18 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $38 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $1 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $18 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $5 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $9 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $18 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $18 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $18 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $19 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $18 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $22 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $18 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $35 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $55 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $10 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $7 1h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 48¢ $18 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,105.10 · official $9,101.65 (match) · 1079 history records