Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:48:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37f6…cb46 sports 715 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$120 (+6%) realized +$154 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%356W / 353L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day98.2pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$11
14 days+$90
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$65
other 5% −$9
crypto 0% −$3
world 0% +$4
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 395 -5.5% -14.5% 46% 45% -8.8%
≤30d 709 +3.0% -6.8% 50% 50% -5.1%
≤90d 709 +3.0% -6.8% 50% 50% -5.1%
all 709 +3.0% -6.8% 50% 50% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover98.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.8% 50% -5.1%
10% ← realistic here -15.7% 50% -14.2%
15% -23.9% 50% -22.5%
20% -31.3% 50% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$154
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses356 / 353
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions5
Markets (closed)709 / 715
History coverage10d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day98.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 709 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA - Map 2 Winner KRÜ Spark 43¢ 21¢ $18 $9 −$9 (-51%)
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Paris Basketball 45¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Map Handicap: ILWL (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) illwill 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B 4ikibamboni 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage illwill 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 245 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 +$8 +158%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 17 $5 +$6 +123%
Ironi Ness Ziona vs. Hapoel Galil Elyon Jun 17 $9 +$12 +125%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -49%
Game Handicap: 4iki (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$6 +114%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $5 +$4 +82%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $5 +$7 +134%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $10 +$13 +129%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 +$7 +134%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3 +$3 +109%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 +$6 +109%
Aguada Santeros vs. Indios de Mayaguez Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 +$5 +109%
AHL: Chicago Wolves vs. Toronto Marlies Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Fortaleza EC win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs MASONIC (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Playoffs Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Alliance (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 16 $12 −$3 -25%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $23 −$5 -22%
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Jun 16 $3 +$2 +93%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $8 +$9 +112%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $8 −$4 -49%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $4 +$3 +82%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 16 $4 +$5 +123%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $4 +$5 +134%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+1.5) Jun 16 $4 +$3 +86%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $2 +$3 +105%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Map Handicap: SASHI (-1.5) vs HyperSpirit (+1.5) Jun 16 $4 +$4 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $11 1h
Ironi Ness Ziona vs. Hapoel Galil Elyon SELL Hapoel Galil Elyon 100¢ $21 1h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA - Map 2 Winner BUY KRÜ Spark 43¢ $5 1h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA - Map 2 Winner BUY KRÜ Spark 43¢ $5 1h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA - Map 2 Winner BUY KRÜ Spark 44¢ $5 1h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA - Map 2 Winner BUY KRÜ Spark 43¢ $3 1h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Paris Basketball 47¢ $5 1h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Paris Basketball 44¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 44¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 45¢ $5 1h
Map Handicap: ILWL (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) BUY illwill 42¢ $5 1h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 2h
Game Handicap: 4iki (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) SELL Flame Team 100¢ $9 2h
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Nuclear TigeRES 44¢ $5 3h
Ironi Ness Ziona vs. Hapoel Galil Elyon BUY Hapoel Galil Elyon 46¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 56¢ $5 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 48¢ $0 3h
Ironi Ness Ziona vs. Hapoel Galil Elyon BUY Hapoel Galil Elyon 42¢ $5 3h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 38¢ $5 4h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 52¢ $5 4h
Will IR Tanger win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 50¢ $5 5h
Will Raja Club Athletic win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 5h
Game Handicap: 4iki (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) BUY Flame Team 53¢ $5 5h
Will Maghreb AS de Fès win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $9 5h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $12 5h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 47¢ $5 6h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 52¢ $5 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.98 · official $7.49 · 1241 history records