trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 61¢ | 46¢ | $7,583 | $5,774 | −$1,810 (-24%) |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | Yes | 23¢ | 14¢ | $3,263 | $2,014 | −$1,249 (-38%) |
| Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? | No | 74¢ | 78¢ | $400 | $424 | +$24 (+6%) |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? | No | 81¢ | 93¢ | $300 | $346 | +$46 (+15%) |
| Unit FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Yes | 65¢ | 58¢ | $200 | $179 | −$21 (-11%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Apr 22 | $300 | +$415 | +138% |
| Will Kanye launch a coin in March? | May 18 | $100 | +$22 | +22% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 09 | $115 | −$115 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 1 | +138.4% | +115.7% | 100% | 100% | +115.7% |
| all | 3 | +20.1% | +8.7% | 67% | 67% | +47.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +8.7% | 67% | +47.1% |
| 10% | -1.7% | 33% | +33.0% |
| 15% | -11.2% | 33% | +20.2% |
| 20% | -19.9% | 33% | +8.4% |