Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37f9…d402 other 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$89 (-19%) realized −$21 · open −$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip
Net edge-71%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%1W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$245
sports 4% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-68.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -65.5% -68.8% 14% 14% -60.8%
≤30d 7 -65.5% -68.8% 14% 14% -60.8%
≤90d 7 -65.5% -68.8% 14% 14% -60.8%
all 7 -65.5% -68.8% 14% 14% -60.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -68.8% 14% -60.8%
10% -71.8% 14% -64.6%
15% -74.5% 14% -68.0%
20% -77.0% 14% -71.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -65% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$47 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$21
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $111 $45 −$66 (-59%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $113 −$111 -98%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $152 −$148 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $61 +$85 +139%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 4h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 9h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 20h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 20h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 20h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 29h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $146 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $61 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.23 · official $63.23 (match) · 18 history records