Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:33:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37f9…23dd crypto 182 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$36 (+3%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate55%100W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day46.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$91
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$1
other 3% +$21
sports 2% −$18
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +6.3% -3.8% 61% 43% +0.2%
≤30d 182 -9.0% -17.7% 55% 35% -9.3%
≤90d 182 -9.0% -17.7% 55% 35% -9.3%
all 182 -9.0% -17.7% 55% 35% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.7% 35% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.6% 25% -18.0%
15% -32.8% 13% -25.9%
20% -39.4% 9% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses100 / 82
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)182 / 182
History coverage12d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day46.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 182 Trades
no open positions (34 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $30 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$11 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 28 $32 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$8 -79%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals AND Argentina leading at halftime? AND Will Arg Jun 28 $8 +$27 +333%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 28 $10 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 28 $9 +$6 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 28 $13 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $22 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 28 $30 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 28 $15 +$16 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 28 $11 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $60 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$5 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 26 $18 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$6 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $9 +$8 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +18%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $13 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$4 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$3 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 35¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 651 history records