Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:19:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37f9…03d7 sports 163 markets active 2h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%11W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$5
politics 20% −$2
other 19% −$5
crypto 11% −$2
economics 6% +$1
world 5% −$1
tech 4% −$1
culture 3% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -3.6% -12.8% 0% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 3 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 4 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.5%
all 163 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 79% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses11 / 152
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)163 / 163
History coverage163d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 163 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $38 −$1 -4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 12 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 15 $67 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 18 $151 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $134 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 18 $270 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 18 $96 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 18 $86 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 18 $376 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Feb 18 $110 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $128 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 18 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $33 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 18 $110 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $80 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 18 $178 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 18 $297 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $136 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 18 $156 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 18 $88 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 18, 2026? Feb 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $108 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 18 $77 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 18 $287 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 18 $62 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)? Feb 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 18 $127 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 18 $139 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will Texas Tech win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Feb 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 18 $108 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $122 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 18 $153 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 18 $88 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Feb 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 18 $134 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 18 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $90 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $169 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $37 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $38 5h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $32 14d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $32 14d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $32 28d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $32 28d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $33 42d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $33 42d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $40 128d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $40 128d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 128d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 128d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 93¢ $34 128d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 93¢ $34 128d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $36 128d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $36 128d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru SELL Yes 98¢ $32 128d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 98¢ $32 128d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $35 128d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $35 128d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 94¢ $34 128d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 95¢ $34 128d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $36 128d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $36 128d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $33 128d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $33 128d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? SELL No 98¢ $37 128d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? BUY No 98¢ $37 128d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? SELL No 98¢ $34 128d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? BUY No 98¢ $34 128d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 782 history records