Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:43:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37fa…a8ab other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5 (-23%) realized −$3 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$3
world 29% −$2
politics 5% $0
crypto 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -28.7% -35.5% 27% 18% -36.7%
≤30d 11 -28.7% -35.5% 27% 18% -36.7%
≤90d 11 -28.7% -35.5% 27% 18% -36.7%
all 11 -28.7% -35.5% 27% 18% -36.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.5% 18% -36.7%
10% -41.7% 18% -42.8%
15% -47.3% 18% -48.3%
20% -52.5% 9% -53.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 36¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -88%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $1 $0 -14%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $1 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 2h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 5h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 13h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 18h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 18h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 25h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 25h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $1 31h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 32h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 32h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 33h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 98¢ $2 33h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 33h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 34h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $2 34h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.12 · official $4.12 (match) · 28 history records