Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:03:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

37 0x37fb…3f5c finance 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 47d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$301 (+6%) realized +$316 · open −$15

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip

Net edge+1%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate86%19W / 3L

Drawdown13%max

Avg bet$217per market

Trades / day1.5pace

Kalshi-fit74%portable

Net worth$466now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$222

7 days+$222

14 days+$222

30 days+$251

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)+1.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	+6.5%	-3.7%	90%	20%	-4.1%
≤30d	12	+12.7%	+2.0%	92%	33%	-3.7%
≤90d	22	+11.9%	+1.3%	86%	41%	-4.4%
all	22	+11.9%	+1.3%	86%	41%	-4.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+1.3%	41%	-4.4%
10%	-8.4%	9%	-13.5%
15%	-17.3%	9%	-21.9%
20%	-25.4%	5%	-29.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 25% · top 2 37% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

53% wins margin < slip thin win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +12% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +11% → late +12% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$16 vs −$19 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×5.47 per $1 lost it wins $5.47

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage

Net worth$466

Realized+$316

Unrealized−$15

Win rate (resolved)86%

Wins / losses19 / 3

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage47d

Avg bet$217

Trades / day1.5

Drawdown13%

Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June?	No	96¢	93¢	$481	$466	−$15 (-3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Jun 28	$503	−$18	-4%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$485	+$18	+4%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$407	+$78	+19%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$393	+$14	+4%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 27	$360	+$33	+9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Jun 27	$345	+$15	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Jun 27	$334	+$11	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Jun 27	$316	+$17	+6%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$299	+$17	+6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Jun 27	$263	+$37	+14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11?	Jun 11	$3	+$2	+71%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Jun 11	$166	+$27	+16%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 22?	May 23	$66	+$3	+4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 20?	May 20	$3	+$2	+49%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 20?	May 20	$53	+$7	+14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19?	May 19	$48	+$8	+17%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 18?	May 19	$8	+$2	+22%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 15?	May 16	$70	−$3	-4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 14?	May 14	$56	+$9	+17%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 13?	May 13	$155	−$36	-24%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 13?	May 13	$150	+$11	+7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 12?	May 12	$32	+$3	+9%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June?	BUY No	96¢	$485	1h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	SELL Yes	95¢	$485	3h
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	97¢	$503	4h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	96¢	$485	7h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	83¢	$407	9h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	96¢	$393	18h
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-06-27?	BUY No	91¢	$360	21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	BUY Up	95¢	$345	25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$334	27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	BUY Down	94¢	$316	27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	94¢	$299	30h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	SELL Yes	99¢	$299	30h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	85¢	$263	16d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11?	SELL Up	94¢	$5	16d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11?	BUY Up	58¢	$2	16d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11?	BUY Up	48¢	$1	16d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 22?	SELL Down	1¢	$0	36d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 22?	BUY Up	91¢	$62	36d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 22?	BUY Down	36¢	$3	36d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 20?	BUY Up	87¢	$53	39d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 20?	BUY Up	70¢	$1	39d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 20?	BUY Up	63¢	$2	39d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19?	SELL Up	0¢	$0	39d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19?	BUY Down	76¢	$22	39d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19?	BUY Down	70¢	$2	39d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19?	BUY Down	59¢	$5	40d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19?	BUY Up	52¢	$9	40d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 19?	BUY Down	59¢	$10	40d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 18?	BUY Down	39¢	$4	40d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 18?	BUY Up	58¢	$2	40d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $466.35 · official $466.35 (match) · 90 history records