Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:19:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37fb…5cbd other 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 473d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate21%9W / 34L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% $0
world 15% −$1
economics 11% −$1
politics 11% −$1
tech 10% −$1
sports 7% +$13
crypto 6% $0
finance 3% −$1
culture 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -16.9% -24.8% 17% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 6 -16.9% -24.8% 17% 0% -9.9%
all 43 -6.0% -14.9% 21% 5% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 5% -8.5%
10% -23.1% 2% -17.2%
15% -30.5% 2% -25.2%
20% -37.3% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.44 per $1 lost it wins $2.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

473d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses9 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage473d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $49 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 27 $28 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $28 −$1 -3%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 12 $2 $0 -12%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $24 $0 -1%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? May 22 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? May 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 20 $2 $0 -10%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 19 $25 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 19 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will another country be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand F May 18 $1 $0 +11%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 16 $9 $0 -3%
Will Malta finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 16 $18 $0 -3%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 15 $18 $0 +1%
Will Alpine be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 35-40% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 14 $1 $0 -8%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 14 $19 −$1 -4%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 12 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 11 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Larry Kudlow as next Fed Chair? May 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? May 10 $27 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? May 09 $32 −$1 -4%
Will Jaxson Dart be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Apr 05 $31 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Apr 04 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 30 $31 $0 -0%
Will 'Snow White' gross between 44-49m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $30 +$1 +4%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $30 $0 +0%
Incarnate Word vs. Northwestern State Mar 20 $17 +$13 +75%
McNeese State vs. Stephen F. Austin Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-03-04? Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Flames vs. Flyers Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Coastal Carolina vs. Southern Mississippi Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $26 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $26 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 21h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 21h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $20 24h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $20 26h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $23 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $3 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $20 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $17 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $6 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $18 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $28 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $3 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $8 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $15 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $16 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $11 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $28 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $28 23d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 87¢ $2 157d
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $23 357d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.72 · official $0.00 (match) · 144 history records