Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:07:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
37 0x37fc…7d57 politics 142 markets active 0h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$86 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate19%27W / 114L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,124per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$677now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$11
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$77
other 38% +$573
sports 16% −$487
world 2% −$112
economics 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$3
finance 0% +$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 80 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 141 -2.2% -11.5% 19% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 9% -9.6%
10% -20.0% 9% -18.2%
15% -27.7% 9% -26.1%
20% -34.8% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,351) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$15 · ×3.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$677
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses27 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage136d
Avg bet$1,124
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $676 $677 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 28 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 28 $1,781 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $2,587 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $1,240 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $537 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,445 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,213 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,129 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,117 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $2,673 −$4 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,517 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,233 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $5,466 −$6 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $1,371 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,096 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 03 $290 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 03 $516 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,745 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $5,422 −$6 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $718 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $585 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 11 $1,277 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $3,423 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,264 −$2 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,287 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 08 $1,277 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $2,368 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $2,544 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,236 −$2 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $1,156 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $3,595 −$4 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 02 $1,047 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in April? May 02 $225 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 02 $373 +$1 +0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $516 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $724 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $2,112 −$2 -0%
Will Meta have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control Apr 21 $248 −$1 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $406 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $1,033 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $3,440 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $531 15m
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $532 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $531 4h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $532 6h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $530 24h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $531 25h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $534 26h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $535 29h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $529 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $530 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $534 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $535 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $418 8d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $418 9d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $536 9d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $537 9d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $533 13d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $534 13d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $323 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $872 14d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $353 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $873 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,215 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,216 15d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,211 15d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,213 15d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,127 15d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,129 15d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,115 15d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,117 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $677.15 · official $677.15 (match) · 449 history records