Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:28:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
38 0x3801…7013 sports 135 markets active 1h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$318 (-1%) realized −$309 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate71%95W / 39L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$333per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$204est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$422now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$498
7 days+$439
14 days+$439
30 days−$1,063
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$1,085
other 43% +$64
world 1% +$52
crypto 0% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +7.7% -2.6% 76% 44% -4.9%
≤30d 134 -0.7% -10.1% 71% 37% -11.7%
≤90d 134 -0.7% -10.1% 71% 37% -11.7%
all 134 -0.7% -10.1% 71% 37% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 37% -11.7%
10% -18.7% 16% -20.1%
15% -26.6% 9% -27.9%
20% -33.8% 4% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$121 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$422
Realized−$309
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses95 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$204
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage28d
Avg bet$333
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan South Africa 98¢ 96¢ $431 $422 −$9 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $689 +$28 +4%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $686 +$3 +0%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $674 +$36 +5%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $646 +$37 +6%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $713 −$76 -11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $601 +$112 +19%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $558 +$44 +8%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $531 +$27 +5%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $559 +$14 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $583 +$117 +20%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$14 +14%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $237 +$142 +60%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $439 −$8 -2%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$52 +51%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $663 +$4 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $438 −$54 -12%
Will UnionTouargaSports win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $23 −$16 -73%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $148 −$104 -70%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $126 +$22 +17%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $61 +$21 +35%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $43 +$18 +41%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 +$4 +37%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Petra Marcinko vs Aoi Ito Jun 14 $9 $0 -5%
Will Fukushima United FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $30 +$10 +35%
Roland Garros WTA: Anastasia Potapova vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 01 $653 −$517 -79%
Set 1 Winner: Potapova vs Kalinskaya Jun 01 $34 +$15 +43%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Bahrain Jun 01 $510 +$22 +4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 01 $453 +$57 +13%
Will Brazil vs. Panama end in a draw? May 31 $462 −$9 -2%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 31 $459 +$3 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $450 +$8 +2%
Will CD Leganés win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $404 +$46 +11%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 31 $397 +$7 +2%
Will SD Huesca win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $357 +$40 +11%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 31 $373 −$16 -4%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $344 +$29 +8%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $292 +$52 +18%
Will Londrina EC win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $258 +$34 +13%
Will Degerfors IF win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $235 +$23 +10%
Will Iceland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $223 +$11 +5%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $229 +$12 +5%
Set 1 Winner: Kostyuk vs Swiatek May 31 $9 −$2 -23%
Will Blaublitz Akita win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $199 +$15 +7%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $291 −$291 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $229 +$134 +59%
Roland Garros WTA: Maria Sakkari vs Maja Chwalinska May 30 $194 −$82 -42%
Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $243 −$4 -2%
Will JEF United Ichihara Chiba win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $376 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 98¢ $434 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 99¢ $434 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 74¢ $196 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $79 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 91¢ $275 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 92¢ $283 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 63¢ $283 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $415 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 97¢ $415 3h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $403 4h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 99¢ $710 9h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 93¢ $674 11h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $674 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $609 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 13¢ $9 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 50¢ $38 15h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 88¢ $637 15h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $713 16h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $713 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $601 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 96¢ $601 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $558 20h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $558 20h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $531 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $531 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $238 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $202 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 19¢ $42 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 51¢ $102 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 51¢ $17 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $421.87 · official $434.20 · 371 history records