Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:37:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3802…4693 crypto 1298 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (126 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,170 (-10%) realized −$1,161 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate29%476W / 1142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day126.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,378
7 days−$2,501
14 days−$2,543
30 days−$2,543
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$148
other 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (126 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1472 -23.0% -30.3% 28% 7% -28.2%
≤30d 1618 -21.6% -29.0% 29% 9% -26.2%
≤90d 1618 -21.6% -29.0% 29% 9% -26.2%
all 1618 -21.6% -29.0% 29% 9% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover126.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.0% 9% -26.2%
10% ← realistic here -35.8% 8% -33.3%
15% -42.0% 7% -39.7%
20% -47.7% 6% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$1,161
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses476 / 1142
Open positions28
Markets (closed)1618 / 1298
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day126.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 1618 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the National Union for Democracy and Progress win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? Yes 3¢ 15¢ $1 $6 +$4 (+398%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Up 60¢ 30¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-49%)
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? Yes 27¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026? Yes 22¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-39%)
US recession by end of 2026? Yes 33¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Will João de Deus Mendes win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Will Herculano Armando Bequinsa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Will Gabriel Fernando Indi win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-62%)
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-66%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 3¢ 7¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+133%)
Will David Bronson win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+48%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Sam Altman in jail by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Will Consensys IPO by June 30 2026? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Will João Bernardo Vieira win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-49%)
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+121%)
Will the Movement for the Liberation of the Central African People win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will Colombe Cahen-Salvador be the next Secretary General of the United Nations? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 1.0% and 2.0%? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 472 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Rob Ashton win the Canadian NDP Leadership election? Jun 16 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Quinn Hughes win the 2025–2026 NHL James Norris Memorial Trophy? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Benjamin Sesko be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Prem Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 24, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$13 -192%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 5, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 30, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$16 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$33 -104%
BNB Up or Down - May 1, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be between 3.5m and 4m? Jun 16 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$23 -126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$3 -1241%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 1, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 12m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 27m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.37 · official $15.37 (match) · 3500 history records