Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:10:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3803…6d3b world 7 markets active 19h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized +$14 · open −$32
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$611per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,380now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 91% −$18
other 9% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-54.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -49.2% -54.1% 25% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 4 -49.2% -54.1% 25% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 4 -49.2% -54.1% 25% 0% -9.1%
all 4 -49.2% -54.1% 25% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.1% 0% -9.1%
10% -58.5% 0% -17.8%
15% -62.5% 0% -25.7%
20% -66.2% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$37 · ×3.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$1,380
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage17d
Avg bet$611
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? No 91¢ 89¢ $512 $501 −$10 (-2%)
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? No 91¢ 86¢ $500 $477 −$23 (-5%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 87¢ $400 $401 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $1,089 −$47 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,713 +$127 +7%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $402 18h
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $500 20h
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $421 20h
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $91 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $1,042 22h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $1,000 37h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,777 37h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $48 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $14 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $15 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $100 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $849 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $176 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $206 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $13 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $75 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $382 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,379.89 · official $1,379.89 (match) · 21 history records