Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:46:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3806…d265 other 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$60 (+1%) realized +$89 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate25%27W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$451now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$293
14 days+$157
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$4
other 24% +$189
politics 12% +$9
economics 8% −$13
tech 8% −$18
crypto 7% −$6
sports 3% −$113
culture 3% −$11
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.5% -10.9% 20% 20% +25.1%
≤30d 40 -15.9% -23.9% 15% 10% -1.9%
≤90d 90 -9.9% -18.5% 21% 7% -9.0%
all 107 -6.0% -15.0% 25% 10% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 10% -8.8%
10% -23.1% 8% -17.5%
15% -30.5% 8% -25.5%
20% -37.4% 7% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 71% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$6 · ×3.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$451
Realized+$89
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses27 / 80
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)107 / 113
History coverage158d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $348 $345 −$3 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $96 $93 −$3 (-3%)
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? Yes $14 $10 −$4 (-28%)
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? Yes 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-55%)
Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 14¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $51 −$2 -5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $304 +$166 +55%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $67 −$66 -98%
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31? Jun 23 $14 $0 -1%
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? Jun 23 $6 $0 -3%
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,110 Week of June 22 202 Jun 23 $16 $0 -1%
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? Jun 23 $11 $0 -4%
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the England vs Ghana FIF Jun 23 $12 −$2 -16%
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $3 $0 -10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 23 $282 +$198 +70%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $132 −$130 -98%
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central Jun 18 $7 $0 -3%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Mexico vs South Korea FIF Jun 18 $10 −$1 -11%
Will the announcers say "Record" during the Czechia vs South Africa FI Jun 18 $7 $0 -5%
Will the announcers say "Messi" during the Canada vs Qatar FIFA World Jun 18 $2 $0 -2%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Czechia vs South Africa Jun 18 $9 $0 -6%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the Czechia vs South Africa FIF Jun 18 $7 $0 -5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -70%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 11 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 11 $6 $0 -2%
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 11 $9 $0 -2%
Will Drake have 3+ albums in the Billboard 200 top 10? Jun 06 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 06 $13 −$1 -6%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 06 $6 −$3 -50%
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30? Jun 06 $19 −$14 -75%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $16 +$1 +6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 06 $31 −$12 -38%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $33 −$1 -4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 03 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 02 $26 $0 -2%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June? Jun 02 $18 −$1 -8%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 02 $16 −$1 -7%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? May 30 $40 −$5 -13%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 30 $25 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? May 29 $13 $0 +1%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial May 28 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Kim Tae-heum win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial e May 28 $5 +$3 +67%
Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? May 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Solstice FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 25 $32 −$5 -17%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 25 $71 −$1 -1%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May? May 25 $52 −$2 -4%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 in May? May 25 $4 $0 -2%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? May 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 25 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 25 $21 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 20 $181 +$1 +1%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 18 $12 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $352 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $98 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $30 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 18h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $67 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $304 3d
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31? SELL Yes 71¢ $14 3d
Will the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $14 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 3d
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 3d
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,110 Week of June 22 202 SELL Yes 79¢ $16 3d
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,110 Week of June 22 202 BUY Yes 79¢ $8 3d
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,110 Week of June 22 202 BUY Yes 79¢ $8 3d
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $8 3d
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $3 3d
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $9 3d
GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $451.35 · official $451.35 (match) · 402 history records