Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:32:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
38 0x3808…425a other 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate13%15W / 97L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$4
politics 13% −$2
sports 8% +$20
economics 6% −$1
tech 4% $0
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +16.7% +5.6% 25% 12% -8.2%
≤30d 19 +6.9% -3.2% 16% 5% -9.0%
≤90d 109 +3.0% -6.8% 13% 8% -9.4%
all 112 +3.2% -6.7% 13% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 9% -9.4%
10% -15.6% 9% -18.0%
15% -23.7% 8% -26.0%
20% -31.2% 8% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×9.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses15 / 97
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage97d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $54 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $23 $0 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $5 +$6 +134%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $16 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $19 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $248 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $22 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $129 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $15 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $37 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $215 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 01 $49 $0 +0%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 31 $21 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi May 30 $24 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $17 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $109 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? May 17 $103 $0 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $109 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $113 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $220 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $213 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $111 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 11 $201 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $228 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $105 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $217 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $245 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 05 $105 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $110 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $103 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 04 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $107 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $109 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $218 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 30 $116 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 29 $114 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $222 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 26 $110 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $188 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $116 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $338 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $108 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 5h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 25h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 29h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 3d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $16 5d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $16 5d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 42¢ $5 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $19 5d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $54 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 10d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 10d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 12d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 12d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 12d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 12d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 13d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 13d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 14d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 15d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 17d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 17d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 19d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 19d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $19 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.70 · official $37.70 (match) · 322 history records