Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:36:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3809…093b world 78 markets active 0h ago coverage 530d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate32%25W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$6
other 23% −$5
sports 15% −$3
politics 10% $0
finance 5% $0
economics 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.7% -10.1% 33% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 24 +0.2% -9.4% 38% 4% -10.0%
≤90d 71 -0.8% -10.3% 28% 4% -9.8%
all 78 -1.5% -10.9% 32% 5% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 5% -9.9%
10% -19.4% 3% -18.6%
15% -27.2% 1% -26.4%
20% -34.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

530d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses25 / 53
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage530d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $34 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $80 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $121 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $26 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $34 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $58 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $69 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $71 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $37 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $27 −$2 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $41 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $68 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $117 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $43 −$1 -3%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $50 +$1 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $40 −$1 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $89 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $44 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 20 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $39 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 19 $2 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $2 $0 -19%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $3 $0 +2%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $79 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $275 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 27 $73 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $127 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $18 $0 -1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $7 +$1 +13%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $46 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1 $0 -6%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $113 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 89¢ $33 10m
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $17 19h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $17 22h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $6 28h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $6 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $25 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $26 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $19 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $20 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $14 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $34 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 70¢ $34 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 70¢ $34 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $23 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $22 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $37 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $37 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $25 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $8 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $33 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $33 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $32 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $15 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $18 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $25 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $8 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.84 · official $0.00 (match) · 386 history records