Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:50:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x3818…9797
sports · 246 markets active 0h ago
7.5score
+$55,118 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$52,822 · open +$2,827
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16,449
Realized+$52,822
Unrealized+$2,827
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses150 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$4,846
Open positions13
Markets (closed)233 / 246
History coverage18d
Avg bet$1,858
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 13 History 233 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20,770
7 days+$29,316
14 days+$51,277
30 days+$52,822
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 64¢ 100¢ $3,000 $4,665 +$1,665 (+55%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 71¢ 100¢ $2,500 $3,532 +$1,032 (+41%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 63¢ 64¢ $2,500 $2,560 +$60 (+2%)
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 86¢ 100¢ $2,000 $2,306 +$306 (+15%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Vitality 76¢ 90¢ $800 $948 +$148 (+19%)
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Galions 75¢ 100¢ $450 $601 +$151 (+33%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ 64¢ $508 $504 −$4 (-1%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 49¢ 48¢ $472 $467 −$5 (-1%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Athletics 64¢ 64¢ $454 $458 +$4 (+1%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs 46¢ 46¢ $406 $402 −$4 (-1%)
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? No 73¢ 78¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+8%)
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Eintracht Spandau 13¢ 0¢ $400 $2 −$398 (-100%)
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner UCAM Esports Club 10¢ 0¢ $126 $1 −$125 (-100%)
LoL: EDward Gaming Youth Team vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 2 Winner EDward Gaming Youth Team 74¢ 0¢ $900 $0 −$900 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy - Game 1 Winner CTBC Flying Oyster Academy 28¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA 58¢ 0¢ $3,000 $0 −$3,000 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 57¢ 0¢ $699 $0 −$699 (-100%)
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner Sentinels 52¢ 0¢ $2,324 $0 −$2,324 (-100%)
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner Misa Esports 83¢ 0¢ $2,000 $0 −$2,000 (-100%)
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs Eintracht Spandau 61¢ 0¢ $898 $0 −$898 (-100%)
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Bilibili Gaming 84¢ 0¢ $8,700 $0 −$8,700 (-100%)
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner HANJIN BRION 28¢ 0¢ $600 $0 −$600 (-100%)
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante Playoffs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas 62¢ 0¢ $3,000 $0 −$3,000 (-100%)
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp 37¢ 0¢ $700 $0 −$700 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Team WE 29¢ 0¢ $612 $0 −$612 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $4,046 +$2,444 +60%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $3,053 +$4,173 +137%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $4,037 +$1,884 +47%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $4,062 +$4,271 +105%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,030 +$2,737 +135%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,343 −$2,300 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,017 +$1,364 +134%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2,075 −$2,042 -98%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $410 +$2,447 +596%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $552 +$892 +162%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2,023 +$1,203 +60%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $511 −$143 -28%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 14 $201 +$46 +23%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 14 $508 +$598 +118%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 14 $504 +$172 +34%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $661 +$751 +114%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,209 +$370 +31%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3,030 −$3,000 -99%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $154 +$548 +357%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $407 +$502 +124%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $4,030 +$1,303 +32%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $2,327 −$2,300 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,517 +$902 +60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $710 −$700 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2,559 +$9,346 +365%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,434 −$1,400 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $7,048 +$2,043 +29%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $8,740 −$8,700 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $357 −$350 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,529 −$1,500 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $1,522 −$1,500 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,008 +$380 +38%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $503 +$100 +20%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $20 +$8 +42%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $404 +$202 +50%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $610 +$785 +129%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $605 +$206 +34%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,310 +$468 +36%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $408 +$701 +172%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $204 +$63 +31%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $715 +$1,190 +166%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1,513 +$600 +40%
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,815 +$659 +36%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $710 +$665 +94%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $51 +$155 +304%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 12 $1,003 +$96 +10%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1,017 +$1,308 +129%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $1,512 +$543 +36%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $701 +$21 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 96% +$47,814
other 4% +$7,707
crypto 0% +$128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $2,528 0m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 91¢ $251 14m
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 86¢ $2,008 25m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 72¢ $252 51m
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 70¢ $303 52m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 71¢ $2,017 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 64¢ $3,032 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 70¢ $505 1h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 75¢ $453 1h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 13¢ $410 1h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 9¢ $99 1h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 1 Winner BUY UCAM Esports Club 20¢ $30 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $479 1h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 46¢ $413 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 64¢ $459 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $513 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 43¢ $1,017 5h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 40¢ $1,018 6h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 42¢ $1,017 6h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 62¢ $4,046 7h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 68¢ $4,037 7h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports 43¢ $1,017 7h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 27¢ $511 8h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 48¢ $4,062 8h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 42¢ $814 8h
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 41¢ $1,018 8h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 70¢ $1,009 8h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 30¢ $1,021 9h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 26¢ $207 10h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 42¢ $610 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 +21.3% +9.8% 69% 63% +3.7%
≤30d 233 +10.3% -0.2% 64% 60% +1.4%
≤90d 233 +10.3% -0.2% 64% 60% +1.4%
all 233 +10.3% -0.2% 64% 60% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.2% 60% +1.4%
10% -9.8% 49% -8.3%
15% ← realistic here -18.5% 36% -17.1%
20% -26.5% 27% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,449.14 · official $16,449.15 (match) · 557 history records