Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:03:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3819…fa2a crypto 71 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$341 (-8%) realized −$345 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate70%49W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day32.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$399
sports 4% −$1
other 2% $0
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -2.4% -11.7% 70% 23% -18.4%
≤30d 70 -2.4% -11.7% 70% 23% -18.4%
≤90d 70 -2.4% -11.7% 70% 23% -18.4%
all 70 -2.4% -11.7% 70% 23% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 23% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 17% -26.2%
15% -27.9% 11% -33.3%
20% -35.0% 9% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$29 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$345
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses49 / 21
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage6d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day32.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 64¢ 67¢ $70 $74 +$4 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 21 $8 −$7 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $40 +$2 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 18 $41 +$14 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $46 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $86 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $215 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $115 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $278 −$1 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $144 +$15 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $225 −$225 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $215 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $215 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $216 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $122 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $218 +$40 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $215 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $440 −$218 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $216 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $217 +$21 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $136 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $29 +$11 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $137 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$19 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $29 +$8 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$4 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$1 +2%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 −$1 -21%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -79%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $72 2h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL No 5¢ $2 2d
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY No 24¢ $8 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $42 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $40 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $41 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $41 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $42 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $6 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $29 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $29 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $29 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $215 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $29 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $29 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $29 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $29 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $30 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $30 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $219 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $29 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.24 · official $74.24 (match) · 249 history records