Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:37:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

38 0x3819…a0d1 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 184d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL +$26 (+19%) realized +$26 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip

Net edge+5%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$27per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 184d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+4.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+15.9%	+4.8%	100%	50%	+11.3%
≤30d	4	+15.9%	+4.8%	100%	50%	+11.3%
≤90d	4	+15.9%	+4.8%	100%	50%	+11.3%
all	4	+15.9%	+4.8%	100%	50%	+11.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+4.8%	50%	+11.3%
10%	-5.2%	25%	+0.7%
15%	-14.4%	25%	-9.1%
20%	-22.8%	0%	-18.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +23% too few recent

Fragile wins

50% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +16% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

184d coverage

Net worth$25

Realized+$26

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage184d

Avg bet$27

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	76¢	76¢	$25	$25	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	+$2	+16%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$49	+$24	+48%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 15?	Jun 16	$20	$0	+0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on December 15?	Jun 16	$30	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$25	52m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$12	3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	86¢	$10	3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$73	12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$49	19h
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on December 15?	BUY Yes	100¢	$30	184d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on December 15?	BUY Yes	100¢	$20	184d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.84 · official $24.84 (match) · 9 history records