Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:44:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x381c…2541 world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate33%12W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$2
politics 24% $0
crypto 16% $0
other 16% $0
tech 7% $0
economics 4% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.2% -11.5% 0% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 8 -0.9% -10.3% 12% 0% -10.7%
≤90d 8 -0.9% -10.3% 12% 0% -10.7%
all 36 -0.3% -9.8% 33% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses12 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage280d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $11 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $4 $0 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $1 $0 -6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $35 −$2 -6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $4 $0 -2%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $1 $0 -3%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? Sep 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $3 $0 -9%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 22 $58 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in September? Sep 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 18 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in September? Sep 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 17 $3 $0 +4%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $59 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 16 $31 $0 +1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 16 $5 $0 +4%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Sep 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 12 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $42 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $42 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $42 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $42 22h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $41 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $41 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $2 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 15¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $33 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $35 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8d
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 267d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 268d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 268d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 268d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? SELL No 97¢ $3 268d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? SELL No 99¢ $26 268d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records