Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:51:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
38 0x381c…cbaf sports 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$13,963 (+10%) realized +$13,986 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%22W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,658per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days−$156
14 days+$52
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 99% +$13,945
sports 0% +$24
other 0% −$35
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -37.0% -43.0% 25% 25% -44.8%
≤30d 42 +37.8% +24.7% 38% 38% -2.6%
≤90d 42 +37.8% +24.7% 38% 38% -2.6%
all 54 +24.6% +12.7% 41% 39% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.7% 39% -0.9%
10% ← realistic here +2.0% 37% -10.4%
15% -7.9% 35% -19.0%
20% -16.9% 30% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 98% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +78% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,401 vs −$1,215 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$13,986
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses22 / 32
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage474d
Avg bet$2,658
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 14¢ $34 $12 −$23 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $16 +$24 +146%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $9 −$8 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $18 +$27 +146%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $29 +$31 +109%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $31 −$31 -99%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $32 −$32 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $31 −$31 -99%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$28 +262%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $52 −$50 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $30 +$30 +97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$10 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $24 +$26 +109%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $27 +$43 +158%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $32 +$28 +90%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $6 +$19 +291%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$15 +1374%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$29 +262%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$6 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $7 +$18 +250%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $7 +$43 +596%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$15 +97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$25 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $42 +$18 +42%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 0 Czechia? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 11-14%? Jun 03 $231 −$48 -21%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 14-17%? Jun 03 $48 +$12 +25%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by between 17-20%? Jun 02 $22 −$2 -8%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? May 13 $114 +$4 +3%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? May 09 $367 −$246 -67%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be the People's Power Party candidate for president May 04 $291 −$291 -100%
Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? May 03 $1,251 +$568 +45%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 23 $235 +$42 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $35 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $16 10h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 10h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $12 10h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 41¢ $25 40h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $42 40h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $5 40h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $18 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 51¢ $31 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $29 3d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 4d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 5d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $32 5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $31 5d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 6d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 6d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $52 6d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 7d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 7d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 14¢ $14 7d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $20 7d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $24 8d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $27 8d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $32 8d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 9d
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.60 · official $11.60 (match) · 265 history records