Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:02:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
38 0x381d…fede other 85 markets active 3h ago coverage 404d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,926 (+20%) realized +$4,647 · open −$721
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate22%16W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$358est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$3,525now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 404d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$1,313
other 41% −$2,022
crypto 2% +$2,612
world 1% $0
culture 0% −$15
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +20.2% +8.8% 27% 27% +13.6%
≤30d 31 +92.9% +74.5% 32% 32% +27.5%
≤90d 47 +38.6% +25.4% 26% 23% +14.4%
all 74 +21.4% +9.8% 22% 20% +20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.8% 20% +20.6%
10% -0.7% 19% +9.1%
15% -10.3% 18% -1.5%
20% -19.1% 18% -11.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +66% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$540 vs −$104 · ×5.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

404d coverage
Net worth$3,525
Realized+$4,647
Unrealized−$721
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses16 / 58
Est. fees paid−$358
Open positions4
Markets (closed)74 / 85
History coverage404d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3,304 $2,791 −$513 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $347 $337 −$10 (-3%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $480 $240 −$240 (-50%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $116 $158 +$42 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 50 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $129 −$92 -72%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $65 +$396 +612%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $51 −$13 -25%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $286 −$148 -52%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $299 −$293 -98%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $402 −$57 -14%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $76 −$74 -98%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $91 −$37 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $18 −$18 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$4 +24%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $184 +$691 +375%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $195 +$186 +95%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $49 −$48 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 +$106 +1288%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 Jun 13 $153 +$444 +290%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $3,813 +$763 +20%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $47 +$719 +1519%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $367 +$677 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Argentina vs. Honduras end in a draw? Jun 07 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Honduras win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $21 −$20 -97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $497 +$1,060 +213%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $84 −$82 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $154 −$150 -98%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $2,341 −$2,091 -89%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $30 −$29 -97%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $291 −$285 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $112 −$110 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 06 $53 −$52 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 06 $57 −$4 -6%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers May 06 $21 −$10 -45%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $100 −$97 -97%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $101 −$99 -97%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 03 $71 −$70 -98%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic May 03 $89 −$87 -98%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 03 $101 −$99 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $51 −$50 -97%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - 76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $452 +$820 +181%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 02 $714 +$36 +5%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $26 −$25 -97%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $46 −$45 -98%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $255 −$251 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Mar 23 $15 +$89 +592%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Feb 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $56 3h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $210 3h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $124 3h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $0 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes $37 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 88¢ $460 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 12¢ $65 3h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $26 3h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $39 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $129 4h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $128 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 37¢ $299 30h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $42 30h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $341 30h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes $23 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $23 2d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $53 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $53 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down $1 2d
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal $18 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 17¢ $18 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 5d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY $29 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $29 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $694 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 10¢ $82 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,525.25 · official $3,525.25 (match) · 275 history records