Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:16:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x381d…5643 crypto 395 markets active 0h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$153 (-4%) realized −$153 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate84%332W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$155
7 days−$162
14 days−$162
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$181
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -30.2% -36.8% 58% 18% -58.2%
≤30d 38 -30.2% -36.8% 58% 18% -58.2%
≤90d 395 -2.6% -11.9% 84% 26% -13.9%
all 395 -2.6% -11.9% 84% 26% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 26% -13.9%
10% -20.3% 8% -22.1%
15% -28.0% 4% -29.7%
20% -35.1% 1% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$8 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$153
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses332 / 63
Open positions0
Markets (closed)395 / 395
History coverage39d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 395 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$26 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$6 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 14 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET May 14 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 854 history records