Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:31:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
38 0x381f…9a04 crypto 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 267d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$548 (-2%) realized −$548 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate96%65W / 3L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$389per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$794now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$9
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$763
finance 18% +$33
other 8% +$27
world 8% +$11
economics 7% +$122
politics 5% +$16
tech 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 7 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 16 +0.5% -9.1% 94% 0% -9.1%
all 68 -1.2% -10.6% 96% 3% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 3% -11.4%
10% -19.2% 1% -19.9%
15% -27.0% 0% -27.6%
20% -34.1% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$745) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$285 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

267d coverage
Net worth$794
Realized−$548
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses65 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage267d
Avg bet$389
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $794 $794 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $491 +$1 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 25 $301 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? Jun 24 $298 +$2 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 16 $379 +$4 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June? Jun 15 $108 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $396 +$3 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 29 $503 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 28 $781 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 26 $780 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 22 $779 +$1 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 16 $768 +$10 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 06 $765 +$4 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 17 $766 −$1 -0%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 14 $752 +$14 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 6-12? Apr 14 $748 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 March 30-April 5? Apr 07 $747 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Mar 29 $745 +$2 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Mar 25 $48 +$4 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 25 $678 +$16 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 21? Mar 18 $846 −$846 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $106k in October? Mar 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 15 $663 +$15 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $46 +$1 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 05 $46 +$1 +2%
Will XRP reach $2.00 February 23-March 1? Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in February? Mar 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.40 in February? Mar 03 $34 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in February? Mar 03 $629 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of February? Feb 26 $705 +$2 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.10 February 16-22? Feb 21 $703 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on February 13? Feb 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on February 15? Feb 14 $91 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on February 14? Feb 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on February 14? Feb 13 $573 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Solana be less than $40 on February 12? Feb 13 $91 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 February 2-8? Feb 11 $698 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 6? Feb 07 $697 +$1 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $460 +$107 +23%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $126 +$4 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 18 $126 $0 +0%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 28 $118 +$8 +6%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 23 $441 +$19 +4%
Ethereum all time high by December 31? Dec 11 $99 +$19 +19%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $137 +$8 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 09 $190 +$7 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? Nov 29 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November? Nov 27 $37 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Nov 23 $176 +$15 +8%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 October 27-November 2? Nov 04 $162 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $794 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $493 28h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $302 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $301 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $278 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $14 3d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $7 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $491 10d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $101 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $109 12d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $37 13d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $117 13d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $128 13d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $100 14d
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $298 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 100¢ $88 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? SELL Yes 100¢ $209 15d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $47 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $108 25d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $396 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? SELL No 100¢ $503 29d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? BUY No 100¢ $503 30d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $279 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? SELL No 100¢ $782 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? BUY No 100¢ $781 32d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $781 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $793.59 · official $793.59 (match) · 388 history records