Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:33:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
38 0x3820…3f8d crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,087 (-23%) realized −$2,061 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%20W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$80
14 days+$80
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$1,219
other 17% −$558
world 17% −$147
politics 3% −$212
weather 1% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -65.9% -69.2% 20% 20% +31.0%
≤30d 5 -65.9% -69.2% 20% 20% +31.0%
≤90d 47 -25.9% -33.0% 43% 40% -31.2%
all 48 -27.5% -34.4% 42% 40% -32.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 40% -32.0%
10% -40.7% 31% -38.5%
15% -46.4% 25% -44.5%
20% -51.6% 21% -49.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$151 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$234
Realized−$2,061
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses20 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage91d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 57¢ $260 $234 −$26 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $152 +$107 +70%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 20 $516 −$500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 20 $415 −$400 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET May 20 $552 +$439 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 20 $414 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 20 $506 +$90 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 21 $387 −$387 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 21 $200 −$193 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 21 $250 +$232 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Apr 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 21 $276 −$266 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 21 $206 +$185 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 21 $100 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 21 $150 +$134 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 21 $189 +$163 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 21 $180 −$174 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 21 $350 −$61 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 21 $153 −$148 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 21 $100 +$95 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 21 $72 +$36 +50%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Apr 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid Apr 18 $61 −$33 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 18 $65 −$63 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 18 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 18 $96 +$109 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 18 $100 −$95 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 18 $100 −$96 -96%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 18 $409 +$96 +24%
Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 18 $33 +$4 +12%
Will Trump talk to Elon Musk in April? Apr 18 $25 +$3 +13%
Will Trump talk to Xi Jinping in April? Apr 18 $50 +$14 +28%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $55 +$47 +85%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 18 $339 −$133 -39%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Apr 18 $500 −$294 -59%
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi Apr 18 $85 +$8 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 16 $200 +$103 +52%
Epstein client list released by June 30? Apr 15 $8 −$3 -40%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 13 $400 +$154 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 5? Apr 03 $50 −$48 -97%
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April? Apr 03 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in April? Apr 03 $140 −$140 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 23, 2026? Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $263 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 29h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 29h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 29h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $152 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $115 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $401 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $415 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $414 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $138 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $414 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $506 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $200 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $75 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $25 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $170 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $12 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $30 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $75 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $250 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $50 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $42 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $234 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $56 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $150 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $100 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $80 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $150 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $100 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.70 · official $233.70 (match) · 97 history records