Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:00:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3825…e10d crypto 72 markets active 3h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-5%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate54%39W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day25.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$16
world 1% −$1
other 1% $0
weather 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -17.4% -25.2% 54% 33% -18.5%
≤30d 72 -17.4% -25.2% 54% 33% -18.5%
≤90d 72 -17.4% -25.2% 54% 33% -18.5%
all 72 -17.4% -25.2% 54% 33% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.2% 33% -18.5%
10% ← realistic here -32.4% 21% -26.3%
15% -38.9% 21% -33.5%
20% -44.9% 17% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses39 / 33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)72 / 72
History coverage6d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 72 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$3 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$5 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +39%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 176 history records