Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3827…796f crypto 254 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-3%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate72%181W / 72L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day37.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 253 -2.9% -12.2% 72% 53% -12.5%
≤30d 253 -2.9% -12.2% 72% 53% -12.5%
≤90d 253 -2.9% -12.2% 72% 53% -12.5%
all 253 -2.9% -12.2% 72% 53% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 53% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 40% -20.8%
15% -28.3% 23% -28.5%
20% -35.3% 14% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses181 / 72
Open positions1
Markets (closed)253 / 254
History coverage7d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day37.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Down 69¢ 54¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 71 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$2 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.55 · official $1.49 (match) · 436 history records