Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T11:27:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3829…137e sports 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,711 (-0%) realized −$1,720 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate84%140W / 27L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,411per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$1,503est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$795now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$130
7 days+$486
14 days+$486
30 days+$452
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$8,597
other 7% −$11,352
crypto 5% −$118
tech 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +3.5% -6.4% 92% 8% -1.7%
≤30d 25 +2.2% -7.5% 92% 16% -6.6%
≤90d 167 -3.4% -12.6% 84% 20% -10.2%
all 167 -3.4% -12.6% 84% 20% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 20% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 9% -18.8%
15% -28.6% 5% -26.6%
20% -35.6% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$1,581) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$230 vs −$1,298 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$795
Realized−$1,720
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses140 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$1,503
Open positions1
Markets (closed)167 / 168
History coverage81d
Avg bet$2,411
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Madison Keys Madison Keys 99¢ 100¢ $786 $795 +$9 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 24 $717 +$69 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET Jun 24 $100 $0 +0%
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 24 $694 +$33 +5%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 24 $689 +$5 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $689 +$1 +0%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif Jun 23 $680 +$8 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET Jun 23 $301 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET Jun 23 $100 +$1 +1%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 23 $662 +$9 +1%
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 23 $656 +$5 +1%
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 22 $299 +$357 +119%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $670 −$665 -99%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 03 $300 +$1 +0%
PortlandFire vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 03 $365 +$4 +1%
Chicago Sky vs. Washington Mystics Jun 03 $331 +$32 +10%
Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 03 $300 +$3 +1%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 02 $595 +$37 +6%
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings Jun 02 $591 +$3 +1%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $460 +$131 +28%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $400 +$61 +15%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Telekom Baskets Bonn May 30 $299 +$100 +33%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $1,497 +$121 +8%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions May 26 $900 +$15 +2%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $1,499 +$122 +8%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $1,002 +$42 +4%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream May 24 $2,041 −$2,040 -100%
Aquila Basket Trento vs. Virtus Bologna May 24 $814 +$14 +2%
Wuerzburg vs. Telekom Baskets Bonn May 24 $1,165 +$47 +4%
Forca Lleida CE vs. Basquet Club Andorra May 24 $1,470 +$20 +1%
Bilbao Basket vs. Basquet Girona May 24 $400 +$4 +1%
Nagasaki Velca vs. Ryukyu Golden Kings May 24 $1,902 +$57 +3%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $1,773 +$129 +7%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Chicago Sky May 23 $1,021 +$47 +5%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions May 23 $1,652 +$74 +4%
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $500 +$14 +3%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $1,544 +$94 +6%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Indiana Fever May 23 $1,478 +$65 +4%
Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks May 23 $2,058 −$347 -17%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury May 22 $1,660 +$165 +10%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $1,581 +$79 +5%
Golden State Valkyries vs. New York Liberty May 22 $802 +$32 +4%
Toronto Tempo vs. Minnesota Lynx May 22 $731 +$17 +2%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $700 +$10 +1%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $320 +$1 +0%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $500 +$1 +0%
Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions May 21 $675 +$32 +5%
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm May 21 $74 +$9 +12%
Dallas Wings vs. Chicago Sky May 21 $1,402 +$64 +4%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $1,607 −$139 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 99¢ $6 40m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 99¢ $380 40m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Madison Keys BUY Madison Keys 99¢ $400 41m
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva SELL Ekaterina Alexandrova 100¢ $786 41m
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 90¢ $15 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 90¢ $401 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 92¢ $301 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $100 5h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 95¢ $3 7h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 96¢ $60 7h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 96¢ $30 7h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 96¢ $200 7h
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces BUY New York Liberty 95¢ $401 7h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 99¢ $89 10h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 99¢ $200 10h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Kansas City Royals 99¢ $400 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $689 17h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif BUY Heather Watson 99¢ $180 18h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif BUY Heather Watson 99¢ $200 18h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Heather Watson vs Mayar Sherif BUY Heather Watson 99¢ $300 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 29h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 98¢ $2 33h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 99¢ $260 33h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 99¢ $400 33h
Toronto Tempo vs. Atlanta Dream SELL Atlanta Dream 99¢ $662 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $795.03 · official $795.03 (match) · 788 history records