Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:21:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

38 0x382d…f753 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 210d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$25 (+11%) realized +$23 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip

Net edge+30%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate100%5W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$26per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit22%portable

Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 210d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)+30.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+67.6%	+51.6%	100%	67%	+51.9%
≤30d	3	+67.6%	+51.6%	100%	67%	+51.9%
≤90d	3	+67.6%	+51.6%	100%	67%	+51.9%
all	5	+44.3%	+30.5%	100%	60%	+21.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+30.5%	60%	+21.8%
10%	+18.1%	40%	+10.1%
15%	+6.6%	40%	-0.5%
20%	-3.8%	40%	-10.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 58% · top 2 81% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +68% too few recent

Fragile wins

40% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +44% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$5 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage

Net worth$162

Realized+$23

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses5 / 0

Open positions4

Markets (closed)5 / 9

History coverage210d

Avg bet$26

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	83¢	82¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	86¢	97¢	$20	$23	+$3 (+13%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	66¢	66¢	$20	$20	+$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Yes	64¢	64¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$10	+$6	+55%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$10	+$1	+8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$10	+$14	+140%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	Dec 11	$20	$0	+1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	Dec 11	$20	+$4	+18%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	64¢	$20	1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	66¢	$20	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$101	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	86¢	$20	1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	41¢	$10	20h
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	92¢	$10	20h
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?	BUY No	99¢	$20	209d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?	BUY Yes	85¢	$20	209d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.02 · official $162.02 (match) · 14 history records