Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:40:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x382f…9404
sports · 289 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$174 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$196 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17
Realized−$196
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses122 / 163
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)285 / 289
History coverage51d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 4 History 285 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$41
14 days−$164
30 days−$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Under 78¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Donna Vekic 44¢ 68¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+53%)
Set Handicap: Raducanu (-1.5) vs Vekic (+1.5) Vekic 66¢ 94¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+42%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Krejcikova (-1.5) vs Montgomery (+1.5) Jun 14 $3 $0 -4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +82%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $4 +$5 +113%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $6 +$3 +56%
Boulter vs. Vekic: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Mannarino vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $6 +$4 +72%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$4 +88%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +150%
Borges vs. Cilic: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +96%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 +$4 +144%
Set Handicap: McNally (-1.5) vs Sierra (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +95%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $3 +$3 +104%
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Duckworth (+1.5) Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $3 +$3 +85%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Struff vs. Bublik: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 10 $3 +$3 +92%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $10 −$5 -52%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Set Handicap: Wu (-1.5) vs Boogaard (+1.5) Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Virtanen vs. Majchrzak: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 10 $4 +$3 +78%
Set Handicap: Potapova (-1.5) vs Lamens (+1.5) Jun 10 $3 +$4 +144%
Set Handicap: Jovic (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 10 $4 +$2 +56%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Set Handicap: Kostyuk (-1.5) vs Stojsavljevic (+1.5) Jun 09 $2 $0 +22%
Set Handicap: Yastremska (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5) Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Set Handicap: Jovic (-1.5) vs Ruzic (+1.5) Jun 09 $3 +$2 +78%
Set 1 Winner: Raducanu vs Blinkova Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $3 −$2 -59%
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 09 $4 +$3 +69%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Set Handicap: Samsonova (-1.5) vs Dart (+1.5) Jun 08 $6 +$5 +85%
Pliskova vs. Kessler: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 08 $3 +$3 +113%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% −$159
other 11% −$23
world 3% −$8
weather 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $3 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $5 1h
Set Handicap: Krejcikova (-1.5) vs Montgomery (+1.5) BUY Montgomery 51¢ $3 6h
Set Handicap: Raducanu (-1.5) vs Vekic (+1.5) BUY Vekic 66¢ $3 6h
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Donna Vekic 44¢ $3 6h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $3 23h
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) BUY Spurs 19¢ $3 27h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $6 28h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $6 28h
Boulter vs. Vekic: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 34h
Mannarino vs. Minaur: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 34h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 91¢ $10 36h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 73¢ $3 40h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 43h
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 46¢ $4 45h
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 57¢ $3 45h
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) BUY Spurs 33¢ $3 45h
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) BUY Spurs 36¢ $3 46h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $10 46h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $5 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 46h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $6 2d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 2d
Borges vs. Cilic: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 50¢ $3 3d
Set Handicap: Lehecka (-1.5) vs Duckworth (+1.5) BUY Lehecka 51¢ $3 3d
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech BUY Adrian Mannarino 48¢ $3 3d
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska BUY Dayana Yastremska 57¢ $3 3d
Set Handicap: McNally (-1.5) vs Sierra (+1.5) BUY Sierra 56¢ $3 3d
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova BUY Magda Linette 53¢ $3 3d
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Maria (+1.5) BUY Maria 40¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -11.0% -19.5% 45% 45% -26.8%
≤30d 244 -8.4% -17.2% 43% 43% -27.7%
≤90d 285 -7.5% -16.3% 43% 42% -25.0%
all 285 -7.5% -16.3% 43% 42% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 42% -25.0%
10% -24.3% 40% -32.1%
15% -31.7% 39% -38.7%
20% -38.4% 38% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.71 · official $17.25 (match) · 612 history records