Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:05:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
38 0x3830…d2d5 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$205 (-7%) realized −$204 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%9W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$256
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 64% 64% -18.2%
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 64% 64% -18.2%
≤90d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 64% 64% -18.2%
all 14 -0.2% -9.7% 64% 64% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 64% -18.2%
10% -18.4% 50% -26.0%
15% -26.2% 43% -33.1%
20% -33.5% 36% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$186 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$204
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses9 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage5d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $160 $159 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $43 +$5 +11%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $46 +$21 +46%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $732 −$732 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $661 +$71 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $393 +$269 +68%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $245 +$148 +60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $189 +$57 +30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $121 +$67 +55%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $22 +$31 +144%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 +$9 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $162 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $47 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $43 24h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $67 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $67 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $46 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $732 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $732 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $661 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $661 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $393 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $393 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $245 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $189 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $189 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $121 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $22 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $13 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $35 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.76 · official $158.76 (match) · 29 history records