Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:02:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
38 0x3832…35e1 sports 473 markets active 0h ago coverage 700d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL −$8,003 (-5%) realized −$8,189 · open −$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%192W / 242L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$4,203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$216
7 days+$304
14 days+$705
30 days+$884
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$1,823
politics 25% +$3,244
other 21% −$13,010
world 20% +$3,624
economics 2% −$858
tech 1% +$698
crypto 1% −$233
culture 0% +$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +14.1% +3.2% 67% 58% +3.4%
≤30d 34 +4.0% -5.9% 62% 59% +3.7%
≤90d 78 +5.5% -4.6% 50% 47% -3.0%
all 434 -7.2% -16.1% 44% 42% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 42% -16.1%
10% -24.1% 39% -24.1%
15% -31.4% 35% -31.4%
20% -38.2% 29% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$227 vs −$214 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

700d coverage
Net worth$4,203
Realized−$8,189
Unrealized−$114
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses192 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions39
Markets (closed)434 / 473
History coverage700d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 39 History 434 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 50¢ 51¢ $672 $687 +$15 (+2%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $618 $619 +$1 (+0%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $325 $318 −$7 (-2%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 64¢ 80¢ $144 $180 +$36 (+25%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $150 $175 +$25 (+17%)
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $175 $169 −$6 (-3%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 54¢ 74¢ $120 $166 +$46 (+38%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 22¢ 34¢ $100 $155 +$55 (+55%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Under 58¢ 57¢ $140 $139 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $140 $123 −$17 (-12%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Hurricanes 53¢ 52¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 37¢ 36¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 51¢ 50¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 37¢ 34¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 67¢ 60¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $50 $72 +$22 (+44%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+2%)
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 53¢ 57¢ $64 $69 +$5 (+8%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 39¢ 26¢ $100 $67 −$33 (-33%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 66¢ 80¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $100 $59 −$41 (-41%)
Don Lemon sentenced to prison? Yes 13¢ 17¢ $40 $53 +$13 (+34%)
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 14 $200 −$29 -14%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $95 +$22 +23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $200 −$48 -24%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $250 +$24 +10%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 14 $372 +$188 +50%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $300 +$53 +18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $250 +$78 +31%
Will David Jolly be the Democratic nominee for Florida Governor? Jun 12 $20 +$4 +19%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $100 +$201 +202%
Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina Jun 08 $196 −$195 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $152 +$98 +64%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 06 $41 +$33 +80%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $300 +$152 +51%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $122 +$123 +101%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Nothing Ever Happens: May May 31 $100 +$26 +26%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 31 $400 +$116 +29%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $152 −$150 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 30 $450 +$218 +48%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $202 +$84 +42%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $102 −$100 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hamad Medjedovic May 27 $101 +$42 +42%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Thiago Agustin Tiran May 27 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $202 −$200 -99%
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? May 27 $90 −$39 -43%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $501 +$472 +94%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 25 $202 +$105 +52%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 18 $139 +$47 +34%
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 May 18 $30 −$15 -51%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president May 17 $150 +$54 +36%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 16 $775 −$325 -42%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 16 $307 −$116 -38%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 08 $150 +$43 +28%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $100 +$49 +50%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? May 08 $100 −$34 -34%
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B? May 08 $100 −$5 -5%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $81 −$66 -81%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el May 08 $200 −$11 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto May 08 $113 −$35 -31%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's Singles tournament at the Madrid May 03 $100 +$43 +43%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk May 02 $127 −$125 -98%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $60 −$15 -25%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 29 $300 −$69 -23%
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? Apr 29 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 29 $120 −$3 -2%
Will the DHS shutdown last 70 days or more? Apr 23 $200 +$83 +42%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Apr 23 $50 −$49 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 4¢ $2 26m
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $127 44m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $200 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $117 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $100 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 60¢ $200 1h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $480 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $152 2h
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 2h
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $203 3h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 51¢ $101 3h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $122 3h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 58¢ $142 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 65¢ $274 3h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 59¢ $250 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $80 3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $72 4h
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer SELL Yes 100¢ $560 5h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 18h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 54¢ $200 21h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 97¢ $353 21h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 28h
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer BUY Yes 64¢ $101 28h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 28h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 94¢ $328 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 82¢ $300 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,202.93 · official $4,203.08 (match) · 1461 history records