Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:10:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3833…7bef crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$20 (+7%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day40.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.9% -11.2% 73% 55% -10.2%
≤30d 11 -1.9% -11.2% 73% 55% -10.2%
≤90d 11 -1.9% -11.2% 73% 55% -10.2%
all 11 -1.9% -11.2% 73% 55% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.2% 55% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 55% -18.8%
15% -27.5% 36% -26.7%
20% -34.6% 9% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$22 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day40.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records