Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:26:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
38 0x3833…c907 other 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate32%24W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$3
other 30% $0
politics 14% −$1
crypto 8% +$2
tech 2% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.2% -10.6% 12% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 18 -0.6% -10.0% 22% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 18 -0.6% -10.0% 22% 0% -10.1%
all 75 -0.7% -10.2% 32% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 1% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses24 / 51
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage454d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $9 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $31 −$3 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $4 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $33 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $31 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $31 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $34 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $34 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $3 $0 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Dec 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? Jun 26 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 22 $10 $0 +1%
Will Gonzalo Winter win the Chilean presidential election? May 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Anthony Edwards Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 21 $4 $0 +2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $10 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? May 18 $10 $0 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 16? May 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will Manchester United win the UEFA Europa League? May 16 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1900 and $2100 on May 16? May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 13 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? May 12 $13 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 11 $2 $0 -3%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 10 $3 $0 -4%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 09 $2 $0 -3%
Will Chelsea finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? May 09 $12 $0 +1%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 08 $12 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting? May 07 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $31 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 26h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $31 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $31 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $9 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $9 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $28 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $31 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $4 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $31 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $30 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $30 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $30 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $31 6d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $31 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 79¢ $34 20d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 79¢ $34 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $33 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $34 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.87 · official $30.87 (match) · 238 history records