Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:24:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

38
0x3833…33d1
sports · 374 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$386,687 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$410,010 · open +$23,323
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$76,860
Realized−$410,010
Unrealized+$23,323
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses193 / 385
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$44,272
Open positions5
Markets (closed)578 / 374
History coverage40d
Avg bet$8,714
Trades / day76.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 578 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$843,391
7 days−$917,428
14 days−$1,002,890
30 days−$590,274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Hanwha Life Esports 49¢ 100¢ $12,301 $25,092 +$12,791 (+104%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Hanwha Life Esports 55¢ 100¢ $13,853 $24,987 +$11,134 (+80%)
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 53¢ 50¢ $8,444 $8,080 −$364 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 33¢ 34¢ $7,500 $7,614 +$114 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Legacy 32¢ 30¢ $7,500 $7,148 −$352 (-5%)
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Adrian Mannarino 47¢ 100¢ $1,851 $3,939 +$2,087 (+113%)
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Team Vitality 76¢ 0¢ $9,945 $0 −$9,945 (-100%)
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner EDward Gaming 72¢ 0¢ $5,704 $0 −$5,704 (-100%)
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner DN SOOPers 39¢ 0¢ $6,545 $0 −$6,545 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Team Spirit 40¢ 0¢ $2,551 $0 −$2,551 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Gen.G 82¢ 0¢ $4,799 $0 −$4,799 (-100%)
Libema Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Panna Udvardy Ekaterina Alexandrova 82¢ 0¢ $4,695 $0 −$4,695 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner BetBoom Team 55¢ 0¢ $13,750 $0 −$13,750 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA 44¢ 0¢ $8,800 $0 −$8,800 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Daniel Altmaier 44¢ 0¢ $3,067 $0 −$3,067 (-100%)
Birmingham: James McCabe vs Kamil Majchrzak James McCabe 37¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Team Falcons 62¢ 0¢ $9,550 $0 −$9,550 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 41¢ 0¢ $7,500 $0 −$7,500 (-100%)
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner Cloud9 67¢ 0¢ $4,617 $0 −$4,617 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 FlyQuest 47¢ 0¢ $5,000 $0 −$5,000 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner FURIA 63¢ 0¢ $1,312 $0 −$1,312 (-100%)
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Aurora 59¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Team Falcons 61¢ 0¢ $142 $0 −$142 (-100%)
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner LYON 18¢ 0¢ $900 $0 −$900 (-100%)
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs JD Gaming - Map 2 Winner JD Gaming 38¢ 0¢ $4,273 $0 −$4,273 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Jun 12 $9,945 −$9,945 -100%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $5,704 −$5,704 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 12 $2,551 −$2,551 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 12 $4,799 −$4,799 -100%
Madrid Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 12 $3,067 −$3,067 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $9,550 −$9,550 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $4,617 −$4,617 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,312 −$1,312 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $142 −$142 -100%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $900 −$900 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $6,531 −$6,531 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $6,639 −$6,639 -100%
LoL: LNG Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 12 $4,907 −$4,907 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $3,931 −$3,931 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $2,051 −$2,051 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5,700 −$5,700 -100%
Dota 2: paiN Gaming vs Yakutou Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $8,550 −$8,550 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $4,684 −$4,684 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5,303 −$5,303 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $4,200 −$4,200 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $7,485 −$7,485 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $2,660 −$2,660 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 12 $5,665 −$5,665 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs G2 (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1 Jun 12 $3,576 −$3,576 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $6,900 −$6,900 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Jun 12 $2,344 −$2,344 -100%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Team Heretics (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Jun 12 $2,413 −$2,413 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $7,035 −$7,035 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,937 −$2,937 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $7,998 −$7,998 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $718 −$718 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Q Jun 12 $4,924 −$4,924 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - First Stand Group A Jun 12 $4,998 −$4,998 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoff Jun 12 $2,498 −$2,498 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 12 $3,193 −$3,193 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs SK Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $974 −$974 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10,317 −$10,317 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $7,190 −$7,190 -100%
LoL: LOS vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,361 −$1,361 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 12 $6,091 −$6,091 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs Jun 12 $10,800 −$10,800 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $929 −$929 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $6,283 −$6,283 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Jun 12 $8,338 −$8,338 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $8,779 −$8,779 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs JD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $6,671 −$6,671 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playof Jun 12 $9,545 −$9,545 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 12 $562 −$562 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5,529 −$5,529 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$431,027
other 0% −$3,902
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $1,874 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $25 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $226 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $12 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $76 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $61 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $627 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $18 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $13 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $61 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $31 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $627 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $636 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $52 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $448 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $448 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $485 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $194 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $5 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $10 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $31 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $3 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $142 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 55¢ $7,850 3h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 56¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 34¢ $3,638 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 49¢ $2,126 5h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 33¢ $7,651 5h
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Team Vitality 53¢ $8,564 5h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Legacy 32¢ $7,653 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 278 -80.3% -82.2% 10% 10% -67.3%
≤30d 525 -37.3% -43.3% 30% 30% -24.1%
≤90d 578 -29.0% -35.8% 33% 33% -18.8%
all 578 -29.0% -35.8% 33% 33% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover76.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.8% 33% -18.8%
10% -41.9% 33% -26.5%
15% ← realistic here -47.5% 29% -33.6%
20% -52.7% 24% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76,859.97 · official $76,859.97 (match) · 3500 history records